Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
March 19, 2018
SMU is receiving many requests for information and help regarding Section 232 exclusions and how to complete the process. We are attempting to assist when and where possible. Trade attorney Lewis Leibowitz is being very helpful when he has time. If you have specific legal issues that are outside of the scope of what we can cover, we recommend that you contact Lewis directly. His contact information is at the bottom of the “Section 232 Exclusion…” article in tonight’s issue.
I participated in a HARDI steel conference call this morning. There were many more people on the call than usual (not a surprise) and there were executives on the call that were willing to provide more information than normal (a pleasant surprise). One of the keys brought up was the idea that availability is going to dominate the industry. Price will be a secondary factor, and the opinion of one service center was prices could go much higher than people may think. Prepare for it.
However, a wholesaler on the HARDI call voiced a different opinion, an opinion we have heard today from others in the industry. This owner told us, “…While I would not discount anything [service center’s owner name not shown] has to say regarding the steel market, we personally do not share in how bullish he is. We feel that managing and mitigating risk may be the biggest challenge we will have to face sometime in the second half of the year. We don’t want to be sitting on too much inventory when prices start back down.”
I want to welcome our newest readers and members (subscribers), as well as those who have upgraded from Executive to Premium service. I want to remind you that we appreciate comments, questions and suggestions from our readers. You can reach me by email at: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?