Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
May 9, 2018
I am in Chicago this evening attending the Metals Industry Boy Scout Dinner. Joining me is Tim Triplett, so please excuse tonight’s issue if it seems a little shorter than normal.
The Vietnam circumvention final ruling has been delayed another week.
I was speaking to a prospective new customer yesterday and realized as I talked to him about the differences between Steel Market Update and our competitors that I have not provided my background in quite a while. Where I came from and my experiences in the steel industry are one of the key factors when evaluating our product versus anything else that you are using to gather market information.
I spent 31 years actively buying and selling flat rolled steel. My main area of expertise is in coated products, particularly galvanized and Galvalume. However, over the course of my career I also sold hot rolled and cold rolled products.
What makes my background even more unique is I have worked in the service center, steel mill and trading company segments of the industry.
This newsletter began while I was representing a galvanized steel mill in the United States called Winner Steel (now known as NLMK Sharon Coatings). During my 10-year tenure with the mill, the flat rolled steel markets went through a number of wild price and supply cycles and it became apparent to me that the only way my clients were going to be able to prosper was if they had real-time information. So, I began putting together a daily report about the markets and the forces influencing the steel industry.
After Winner Steel was sold to the Duferco JV (Duferco/NLMK) and I lost my representation for the mill, I continued to write and expanded my focus to the greater flat rolled industry. In August 2008, I started SMU as an official business and it has been full-steam ahead ever since.
I tell this story because Steel Market Update is about to go through a growth spurt. We are preparing to expand our coverage and improve our products. To do this successfully, it is important that we understand what we are doing well and what we could be doing better. This is the reason why we have asked you to take a few moments to respond to some questions about our company. Please take some time to click on the following link, which will take you to SurveyMonkey and our questionnaire: https://www.surveymonkey.de/r/TRWPMZB
SMU STEEL SUMMIT CONFERENCE ATTENDEES PLEASE NOTE: If you get a call from anyone trying to book hotel rooms for our conference, it is a SCAM. Do not accept calls from anyone saying they represent our conference. All rooms are booked directly through the Marriott hotels by calling 800-236-2427 or by using the links on our website. SMU never uses any outside organization to sell hotel rooms or anything else. Also, we have 78 rooms left in our room block at the Gateway hotels next to the convention center. Once those run down to around 20 rooms we will add another Marriott property, which is located about a mile away. We will have a minimum of 100 rooms there and there will be a shuttle to the convention center. More details on that hotel shortly.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher

John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.

Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.

Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.

Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.

Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?