Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
February 24, 2019
The Bureau of Industry and Security today denied the exclusion exemptions for two mills: California Steel Industries and Evraz. At this point, we are expecting the NLMK USA and JSW USA exclusion requests to be denied as well. However, a trade attorney (not Lewis) suggested that we not move too fast with any proclamations. There are some interesting circumstances associated with the JSW request. JSW, unlike the other re-rollers, is in the process of building a new EAF at their Baytown, Texas, plate and pipe plant and they just refurbished an idle EAF at Mingo Junction facilities. The Mingo Junction EAF is producing slabs for their hot strip mill and has been up and running for a couple of months now. NLMK also owns a mill that produces steel for their Portage, Ind., facility, and they are buying slabs from U.S. Steel.
Today, I recruited another attorney to be on our trade panel for the 2019 SMU Steel Summit Conference. Alan Price of Wiley Rein LLP, a firm that represents the domestic steel industry, will join Phil Bell, president of the Steel Manufacturers Association, and trade attorney Lewis Leibowitz along with one yet-to-be-named panelist. I am looking at this panel to be in a debate format as opposed to long statements. There will be much to cover regarding trade when we get to late August. About the only thing that’s sure about trade and trade policy – expect the unexpected.
Registration is open, we are slightly above last year’s pace when we had 912 attendees, all but one of our sponsorship spots have been allocated, and we have just a handful of exhibition areas left. Our agenda is now on the website and will be updated weekly. Go to www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/events/steel-summit for more information. Remember, hotel rooms at special rates are only available until our room blocks are sold out. Register for the conference and hotels early. If you have any questions about the conference, you can chat with Brett Linton at 706-216-2140. You are also welcome to shoot me an email: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com
Steel buyers need to be aware that imports of flat rolled products are expected to continue to decline in the coming months. This decline, along with a strong economy, lower service center inventories, and steel mills that are well above 80 percent capacity utilization rates on flat rolled mean any disruption in production could spark a run on steel. The new capacities are aimed at 2020 and 2021, not the first half 2019. Listen carefully to the tone of your salesperson’s voice as well as what they are telling you. Keep reading Steel Market Update and we will do our best to keep you abreast of the latest moves and trends affecting pricing.
If you would like to renew your membership, upgrade your membership, add more people to your membership, or become a new member (subscriber), the person to contact is Paige Mayhair at 724-720-1012 or Paige@SteelMarketUpdate.com
I will be traveling for the balance of this week, to Minnesota of all places. I will have limited access to phone and it may take me some time to return emails.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?
Final Thoughts
With higher tariff rates on steel and aluminum set to go into effect on Wednesday, June 4, a new round of chaos across the supply chain is likely in store. Expect a significant impact on manufacturers and metal fabricators. But even before the latest round of Trump-tariff whiplash on Friday evening, there was a lot of interesting data coming out of SMU's steel-market survey.