SMU Data and Models
SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index: Little Change This Year
Written by Tim Triplett
March 24, 2019
Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index has registered little change so far this year, even as steel prices have seen a small uptrend.
The goal of the index is to measure how buyers and sellers of steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful today (Current Index), as well as three to six months into the future (Future Index). Results are posted as both single data points and as three-month moving averages (3MMAs) to smooth out the trend. Sentiment among industry executives remains well within the optimistic half of the scale, but has declined by 20 points from the January 2018 high of +78.
Current Sentiment measured as a single data point registered +58 in the latest data, about where it has been since the beginning of the year. Measured as a 3MMA, Current Sentiment averaged 57.83, down 2 points from early January.
Future Sentiment
Respondents were asked to assess their chances for success in three to six months. Measured as a single data point, Future Sentiment registered +61. Measured as a 3MMA, the Future Index averaged 60.50. Both measures, firmly in the optimistic half of the range, have seen little movement so far in 2019.
What Our Respondents Had to Say
“Demand is the key variable in working off high priced inventory.”
“Lower cost inventory is in play and arriving now.”
“The extended pricing decline is now impacting quarterly indexed-price contracts. Traditionally for a distributor, Q2 sees demand recovery and a price bounce in those contracts. I’m not confident that we’re going to get either in 2019. “
“It’s getting harder and harder to be successful with imports. There’s too much uncertainty and the protectionist trade environment in the U.S. is making the future cloudy.”
“Uncertainty about commodity pricing will be the issue.”
“The uncertainty won’t change during the current political environment.”
“It depends on the outcome of the removal of Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum.”
“My answer will be the same (just fair) as long as Trump is in office.”
About the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index
SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index is a measurement of the current attitude of buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel products in North America regarding how they feel about their company’s opportunity for success in today’s market. It is a proprietary product developed by Steel Market Update for the North American steel industry.
Positive readings will run from +10 to +100 and the arrow will point to the righthand side of the meter located on the Home Page of our website indicating a positive or optimistic sentiment. Negative readings will run from -10 to -100 and the arrow will point to the lefthand side of the meter on our website indicating negative or pessimistic sentiment. A reading of “0” (+/- 10) indicates a neutral sentiment (or slightly optimistic or pessimistic), which is most likely an indicator of a shift occurring in the marketplace.
Readings are developed through Steel Market Update market surveys that are conducted twice per month. We display the index reading on a meter on the Home Page of our website for all to see. Currently, we send invitations to participate in our survey to more than 600 North American companies. Our normal response rate is approximately 110-150 companies. Of those responding to this week’s survey, 37 percent were manufacturers and 49 percent were service centers/distributors. The balance was made up of steel mills, trading companies and toll processors involved in the steel business. Click here to view an interactive graphic of the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index or the SMU Future Steel Buyers Sentiment Index.
Tim Triplett
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