• Skip to main content

    Analysis

    Final Thoughts

    Written by John Packard


    A comment from a steel buyer today as we discussed steel prices, “That’s what I like about the steel business, there is always a new dynamic.” Put another way by one of my trading mentors a number of years back, in the steel industry prices are either going up or they are going down, there is no in between. This makes for an interesting business to cover and my days are spent in constant conversation with both buyers and sellers of steel.

    John Packard Summit 18On a personal note, one of my neighbors here in Florida lives in Germany and has a company that works with automotive engineers, tool and die makers and fabricators. His company solves the problems being created by the new advanced high-strength steels. We had an interesting conversation about spring-back, forming and the new shapes steel is being asked to make in the new vehicles we (the public) has not seen yet. He told me about the next generation of electric vehicles and how you will be able to use your phone and program in the amount of horsepower you want the car to generate on any specific trip. Going on the Autobahn in Germany? Maybe 500 horsepower is what you want. Driving around town, dial in 200 horsepower. Same car, same engine (electric). He also told me the max weight for an electric vehicle to be effective is 1,500 pounds. I found it interesting. I am trying to get him to commit to speak at one of our future Steel 201 workshops where we focus in on advanced high-strength steels.

    Latest in Analysis

    Price: Blue wave may rock tariff boat, but some ships like Section 232 aren’t sinking

    The midterms are over, and Democrats will control both chambers of Congress in January. In this space last week, Lewis Leibowitz predicted that President Trump's tariffs, including Section 232, may not last much longer. We disagree. To be sure, the new Congress will change trade policy. It will hold hearings, write bills, and almost certainly revisit the trade dispute with Canada. But the foundation of US trade policy is unlikely to be disturbed. Section 232 and Section 301 are established, court-tested authorities that both parties have used. They are also working.

    SMU Survey: Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rise

    SMU’s Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices increased this week, according to our latest market survey.   Every two weeks, SMU polls thousands of steel-industry executives, asking them to rate their companies’ chances of success today and also three to six months down the road. We use their responses to calculate our proprietary Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices, measures tracked since 2008.

    US heating and cooling shipments fall for third straight month

    US shipments of heating and cooling equipment slipped in September for a third consecutive month, according to the latest data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). Shipments declined 2.6% month on month (m/m) in September, after having fallen 10% m/m in August. The monthly pace marks the third-slowest shipment rate year to date. Historically, shipments are strongest in early summer and weakest around the turn of the year, driven by seasonal air conditioner and heat pump volumes. AHRI's data shows September shipments totaled 1,687,240 units, down 2.6% m/m but up 7.7% year over year (y/y) (Figure 1, left). From August to September, shipments of warm air furnaces, A/C, and heat pumps declined, while water heater shipments rose. Compared with a year earlier, only air conditioners and heat pump shipments were higher.