Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
November 25, 2019
Steel Market Update will not publish on Thursday, Nov. 28, or Sunday, Dec. 1, due to the Thanksgiving Holiday. Our offices will be closed on Friday, Nov. 29, and will reopen on Monday, Dec. 2.
Our early December flat rolled and plate steel market trends survey will begin on Monday, Dec. 2. We will also go out to our service center data providers for their inventory and shipment information on Monday.
I will be traveling to New Orleans on Dec. 7-10 to attend the annual HARDI conference. As many of you are aware, I have been participating in the HARDI steel conference call for a couple of decades, and I speak at their conference. I am looking forward to seeing my wholesaler friends in NOLA.
My next trip after New Orleans will be to Ontario, Calif., where SMU will be conducting one of our Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making & Market Fundamentals Workshops. The workshop still has plenty of seats available. We will be touring the California Steel Industries (CSI) steel mill as part of our workshop. Our instructors include two metallurgists (Walburn & McDaniels), one sales and consulting expert (Simon), one purchasing and consulting expert (Briccetti) and me with my 42 years of sales, purchasing, management, marketing, reporting and analytical experience. This workshop comes highly recommend by past attendees. You can find more information on our website: www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/Events/Steel101
We want to wish those in the United States a happy and healthy Thanksgiving Holiday with family and friends.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Tariff-related noise aside, there is one basic factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Despite recent declines, HR prices remain at historically high levels. And there is no obvious support to keep them there.
Final Thoughts
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.
Final Thoughts
Despite some scary headlines lately (especially about Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell) this is not October 2008 (financial crisis) or March 2020 (onset of the pandemic). But it sure seems like we’ve taken a relatively strong economy and poured a thick sauce of uncertainty over it.
Final Thoughts
I put some of our survey data through ChatGpt, with interesting results.
Final Thoughts
Nearly 50% of respondents to our latest survey thought hot-rolled coil prices have already peaked. And where will those prices be two months from now? Responses were decidedly split on that question.