Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
December 6, 2019
On Friday, SSAB announced another plate price increase. Plate buyers were putting the new “aim to” base price around $700 per ton. Plate prices have been stubborn to move higher. SMU will watch momentum carefully this week to see if prices have finally turned the corner. This weekend I am in New Orleans attending HARDI’s annual conference. I spoke to the sheet metal council this morning about the market and risks that the wholesalers need to consider.
One item I discussed was the spread between hot rolled base pricing and that of galvanized steel. The current spread based on our indices is $190 per ton–well above the historical norms of $100-$140 per ton. We saw huge spreads in the recent past only to have them crash to under $100 per ton.
I also spoke about our Service Center Inventories Flash Report, which was provided to data providers on Friday. There are some definite movements in inventories, and we expect them to continue. To learn more, you will need to become a data provider. You can make a request by contacting Estelle Tran at Estelle.Tran@crugroup.com or myself at John@SteelMarketIpdate.com
I saw an exceptional speaker on leadership and maintaining millennials in your company. I hope to attract him to one of our 2020 conferences.
Speaking of which–mark your calendars as our 2020 SMU Steel Summit Conference will be held on Aug. 24-26. We will begin our pre-summit workshops at 10 a.m. on Monday, Aug. 24. More details will be coming out soon.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?