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    May 7, 2020

    CRU: V U L—Demystifying Recession Shapes

    Written by Jumana Saleheen

    By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service

    Many are still discussing what type of recession will ensue following the Covid-19 pandemic. Will it be U-, V- or L-shaped? Different people may refer to the same shape to mean different outcomes. To bring clarity to this issue, this insight sets out the standard economic definition of each type of recession. The pandemic is forecast to give rise to different shaped recessions in different countries. For the world economy, we forecast a U-shaped recession—defined as a permanent loss in the level of world GDP, but no change in the long-term growth rate of world GDP.

    Jumana Saleheen

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