CRU: China to Announce Large, Targeted Stimulus

By CRU Economists Jumana Saleheen and Economist Yingrui Wang, from CRU’s Steel Metallics Monitor

Special Feature: China will set out its major economic objectives and policy goals for 2020 at the National People’s Congress. We expect fiscal stimulus of 5-8 percent of nominal GDP to be announced, half the size of the stimulus that followed the GFC. Most of this stimulus will come in the form of bond issuance (special treasury bonds and local government special bonds). The biggest beneficiary of this stimulus will be the transport and infrastructure sectors. On monetary policy, we do not expect aggressive interest rate cuts or QE, but efforts will continue to ensure financial markets remain liquid through lending targets and RRR cuts.