Rising Domestic HRC Prices Losing Edge Over Imports

SMU includes a 25 percent import tariff effective on foreign prices after March 23, 2018. We then add $90 per ton to the foreign prices in consideration of freight costs, handling, trader margin, etc., to provide an approximate “CIF U.S. ports price” that can be compared against the SMU U.S. hot rolled price. Note that we do not include any antidumping (AD) or countervailing duties (CVD) in this analysis.

Far East Asian HRC (East and Southeast Ports)

As of Wednesday, Dec. 2, the CRU Far East Asian HRC price rose $9 per ton over last week at $544 per net ton, $31 higher than the price two weeks ago. Adding tariffs and import costs, the delivered price of Far East Asian HRC to the U.S. is $770 per ton. The latest SMU hot rolled price average is $805 per ton, up $35 over last week and up $75 from two weeks prior. Therefore, U.S.-produced HRC theoretically is now $35 per ton more expensive than imported Far East Asian HRC; foreign prices had held a brief advantage one month ago ($4), but were previously more expensive than domestic prices for over a year and a half. In mid-August, domestic HRC held a record high $220 per ton price advantage over Far East Asian HRC.

German HRC

The latest CRU German HRC price is $603 per net ton, up $29 from the previous week and up $37 from two weeks prior. Adding tariffs and import costs, that puts the German price at $844 per ton delivered to the U.S. Therefore, domestically sourced HRC is theoretically $39 per ton cheaper than imported German HRC. This price differential has been shrinking since mid-August, when domestic HRC held a record high $215 per ton price advantage over German imports. U.S. prices have held this competitive price advantage for two years.

Italian HRC

CRU published Italian HRC prices at $544 per net ton, up $25 from last week and up $43 over two weeks ago. After adding tariffs and import costs, the delivered price of Italian HRC is approximately $815 per ton. Accordingly, domestic HRC is theoretically $10 per ton cheaper than imported Italian HRC. This price differential has been shrinking since mid-August, when domestic HRC held a record high $176 per ton price advantage over Italian imports. U.S. prices have held this price advantage for over a year and a half.

The graph below compares all four price indices and highlights the effective date of the tariffs. Foreign prices are referred to as “equalized,” meaning they have been adjusted to include tariffs and importing costs for a like-for-like comparison against the U.S. price.

Note: Freight is an important part of the final determination on whether to import foreign steel or buy from a domestic mill supplier. Domestic prices are referenced as FOB the producing mill, while foreign prices are FOB the Port (Houston, NOLA, Savannah, Los Angeles, Camden, etc.). Inland freight, from either a domestic mill or from the port, can dramatically impact the competitiveness of both domestic and foreign steel. When considering lead times, a buyer must take into consideration the momentum of pricing both domestically and in the world markets. In most circumstances (but not all), domestic steel will deliver faster than foreign steel ordered on the same day.