Product
February 16, 2021
Written by John Packard
Black Swan Events
One of the areas I cover when I am teaching my segment of our Steel 101 workshop is Black Swan Events and how they can impact the steel market – especially steel prices. Most of the United States appear to be having a Black Swan Event in the form of unusually cold weather and lots of ice and snow. After all, it doesn’t get to -1 degree in Dallas, Texas, that often.
The spread between domestic hot-rolled (HR) coil and prime scrap prices continued to widen this month, the 14th consecutive increase. SMU’s hot-rolled (HR) coil price averaged $1,375 per short ton (st) this week, up $25/st from last week and a $95/st increase from a month earlier.
The latest tally of active drilling rigs moved down in the US, while activity jumped in Canada this week, according to oil and gas rig count data published by Baker Hughes.
US shipments of heating and cooling equipment slipped in September for a third consecutive month, according to the latest data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). Shipments declined 2.6% month on month (m/m) in September, after having fallen 10% m/m in August. The monthly pace marks the third-slowest shipment rate year to date. Historically, shipments are strongest in early summer and weakest around the turn of the year, driven by seasonal air conditioner and heat pump volumes. AHRI's data shows September shipments totaled 1,687,240 units, down 2.6% m/m but up 7.7% year over year (y/y) (Figure 1, left). From August to September, shipments of warm air furnaces, A/C, and heat pumps declined, while water heater shipments rose. Compared with a year earlier, only air conditioners and heat pump shipments were higher.
Nucor said on Friday morning it plans to increase plate prices by $70 per short ton (st) as it opens its December order book. The Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker said in a letter to customers that orders must be submitted by Nov. 27 to be considered. You can check out SMU’s Steel Mill Price Announcement Calendar to follow announced pricing moves. SMU’s price assessment for plate currently stands at $1,550/st on average, as of Tuesday, Nov. 10, up $55/st vs. the prior week.
Ferrous scrap prices rose in November across all grades SMU tracks, though prices varied widely by region. “Marketwise, we saw disparate market movements between regions in the November trade, which wrapped up earlier this week,” one source told SMU. “It was a mixed bag, depending on the region and grade.” The source added that export pricing also rose over the course of last week, “but much less than the domestic market.” Demand from US mills is strong and “there is probably more lift to be expected in the market between now and the January trade," he continued.