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    SMU Price Ranges & Indices: March Steel Prices Come in Like a Lion

    Written by Brett Linton


    Steel prices took another bite out of the record books in March. The advent of March shows flat rolled and plate steel prices are still roaring upwards, with hot rolled hitting another record high of $1,240 per net ton, according to Steel Market Update’s check of the market this week. Prices generally moved up in a range from $10-30 per ton. Galvalume, which is in particularly short supply, jumped by $50, buyers reported. There’s no relief in sight from lead times stretching to 12 weeks or more. Ferrous scrap prices are expected to see a big leap of $40-70/GT in March, which will only add momentum to rising finished steel prices. The trend is concerning for steel buyers. “Lack of availability is hindering our ability to meet customer demand,” commented one service center executive. “Steel is just too expensive, I don’t know how much longer we can operate with these numbers from the mills,” said an OEM. “We are hearing universally now that customers are getting very nervous about their credit lines and the cost of materials derailing consumer demand,” said another source. Usually, as the old saying goes, when March weather comes in like a lion it leaves like a lamb, but it remains to be seen if steel prices follow the same pattern. Steel Market Update’s Price Momentum Indicators continue to point toward higher steel prices in the next 30 days.

    Here is how we see prices this week:

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    Nucor temporarily halted secondary offers, rattling a tight US market

    Nucor opened its secondary and excess product bid list across all its flat-rolled mills last Monday, as it typically does, market participants told SMU. But by Wednesday, when bidding was scheduled to close, Nucor notified buyers it would not be awarding any bids that week. The abrupt close sent a shock through the secondary market, they said. “There will be no awards this week,” emails from Nucor sales representatives to customers confirmed. “Effective immediately, we are placing a temporary hold on all secondary sales.”

    Sheet prices surge as ’26 market squeeze spills into ’27

    Sheet prices soared this week as market participants increasingly predict that the strong market characterizing 2026 will stretch well into 2027. And with extremely limited spot availability, mills that have spot tons to sell are charging a significant premium, they said. The result: Sheet prices saw their highest week-over-week gains since March 2025, according to SMU's pricing records. That's when President Trump shocked the market by expanding Section 232 tariffs to cover traditional US allies such as Canada, Mexico, and the EU.

    Nucor increases spot HR to $1,280/ton

    Nucor said on Monday, Nov. 2, that its consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled (HR) coil will be $1,280 per short ton (st) this week, up $10/st from last week. The CSP for HR coil from California Steel Industries (CSI) on the West Coast will be $1,350/st, also up $10/st from a week earlier. Nucor continues to offer lead times of three to five weeks, according to its letter to customers. You can track mill price announcements on our website. Steel Market Update published a weekly price assessment on Tuesday, Oct. 27, showing HR coil prices averaging $1,305/st, up $15/st from the previous week.

    HR Futures: Basic story remains, but curve shifts

    In my last column, the HRC futures curve was pricing a sizable premium on near-term tightness while still pointing toward eventual normalization. Since then, that basic story has remained intact, but the shape of the curve has shifted meaningfully. Rather than simply moving higher and pushing the peak out by another month, as has largely been the pattern throughout this rally, the curve is now pricing a more pronounced and prolonged period of tightness, while the long end has remained relatively anchored, which previously had also been lifted with the rest of the curve.

    galvalume steel coil

    SMU Survey: Mill willingness to negotiate price at lowest levels since 2021

    The majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that mills continue to hold a firm grip on prices. The share of buyers reporting that mills were negotiable fell this week to the lowest rate seen in over five years. Every two weeks, SMU surveys service center and manufacturer buyers asking if mills are negotiable on new spot sheet and plate orders. In this week’s survey, just 3% of respondents said mills were willing to talk price to secure an order (Figure 1). This is down 11 percentage points from our mid-October survey.