• Skip to main content

    Prices

    SMU Price Ranges & Indices: Ups and Downs

    Written by Brett Linton


    Hot rolled steel prices have declined for the fifth time in the last seven weeks to an average of $1,885 per ton, according to Steel Market Update’s check of the market on Monday and Tuesday. That’s down $70 per ton from the high reached in the first week of September. Price momentum for HR is pointing downward on reports of some softening demand, inventory surpluses and competition from imports. Prices for cold rolled and Galvalume dipped by $15 per ton, while galvanized saw a small $5 uptick. Except for hot rolled, where the trend is pretty clear, prices for other flat rolled products have bounced up and down within a small range for the past two months. SMU will keep its Price Momentum Indicators on neutral for those products until the trend is more firmly established. Meanwhile, the mills continue to raise plate prices. Plate hit a new high this week at an average of $1,850 per ton, up $50 from last week and nearly three times higher than at this time last year.

    Hot Rolled Coil: SMU price range is $1,850-$1,920 per net ton ($92.50-$96.00/cwt) with an average of $1,885 per ton ($94.25/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range decreased $50 per ton compared to last week, while the upper end remained unchanged. Our overall average is down $25 per ton from one week ago. Our price momentum on hot rolled steel is Lower, meaning we expect prices to decrease over the next 30 days.

    Brett Linton

    Read more from Brett Linton

    Latest in Prices

    HR Futures: Basic story remains, but curve shifts

    In my last column, the HRC futures curve was pricing a sizable premium on near-term tightness while still pointing toward eventual normalization. Since then, that basic story has remained intact, but the shape of the curve has shifted meaningfully. Rather than simply moving higher and pushing the peak out by another month, as has largely been the pattern throughout this rally, the curve is now pricing a more pronounced and prolonged period of tightness, while the long end has remained relatively anchored, which previously had also been lifted with the rest of the curve.

    galvalume steel coil

    SMU Survey: Mill willingness to negotiate price at lowest levels since 2021

    The majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that mills continue to hold a firm grip on prices. The share of buyers reporting that mills were negotiable fell this week to the lowest rate seen in over five years. Every two weeks, SMU surveys service center and manufacturer buyers asking if mills are negotiable on new spot sheet and plate orders. In this week’s survey, just 3% of respondents said mills were willing to talk price to secure an order (Figure 1). This is down 11 percentage points from our mid-October survey.

    SMU Price Ranges: Sheet and plate up, buyers see strength into ’27

    Sheet and plate prices continued to press higher this week as the current supply squeeze shows no signs of letting up even as contract season winds down and lead times tip into 2027. The historic rally marks a sharp reversal from last year, when the consensus was that prices would drift lower on uneven demand and new capacity. Steel buyers said it remains difficult to find a domestic mill with spot availability in a market that some said is tighter than in 2021, even if prices haven't spiraled as high as they did then. SMU's price assessment for spot hot-rolled (HR) coil stands at...

    Nucor increases spot HR coil by $15/ton

    Nucor said on Monday, Oct. 26, that its consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled (HR) coil will be $1,270 per short ton (st) this week, up $15/st from the prior week. The CSP for HR coil from California Steel Industries (CSI) on the West Coast will be $1,340/st, up $20/st from last week. Nucor continues to offer lead times of three to five weeks, according to its letter to customers. You can track mill price announcements on our website. Steel Market Update (SMU) published a weekly price assessment on Tuesday, Oct. 20, showing HR coil prices averaging $1,290/st, up $10/st from the previous week. We will update our prices on the evening of Tuesday, Oct. 27.

    Final Thoughts: Is the steel market now tighter than in 2021?

    "Now, the problem is no longer the price. The problem is having access to steel." That would have made a good lead. But I can’t take credit for it. Those (very quotable) words are from Cleveland-Cliffs Chairman and CEO Lourenco Goncalves during the steelmaker’s quarterly earnings conference call on Monday. For a while, I thought the shortages we'd been hearing about might be mostly a problem for small- and mid-sized buyers. But we’re seeing even some of the biggest steel buyers talking openly about supply problems.