SMU Price Ranges & Indices: HRC Price Declines Moderate, Noise or New Trend?

Sheet prices continue to fall, but the pace of declines has moderated on the hot-rolled coil side. SMU’s average hot-rolled coil price now stands at $1,190 per ton ($59.50 per cwt), down $45 per ton from $1,235 per ton last week. This weeks’ drop was less than half the $100-per-ton decline recorded last week. And after a year of precedented volatility, HRC prices now stand almost exactly where they were 12 months ago. Could some relative stability be in store? Some sources predict that HRC prices should level off around $1,000 per ton. But others maintain that this time is not different and that the floor will be roughly where it was in prior cycles ($400-600 per ton). Cold-rolled and coated prices, meanwhile, saw similar declines to HRC this week. Plates prices also dipped, but only modestly. There has been only marginal discounting by certain plate producers despite what some buyers characterize as an untenably wide spread between HRC and plate. One result of expectations of a plate correction: Some on the plate side noted that resale prices were significantly below fob mill replacement costs. SMU is as a result of such factors considering adjusting our plate price momentum indicator. Our sheet indicators continue to point toward lower prices for the next 30 days.

Hot Rolled Coil: SMU price range is $1,120-$1,260 per net ton ($56.00-$63.00/cwt) with an average of $1,190 per ton ($59.50/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range decreased $40 per ton compared to one week ago, while the upper end declined $50 per ton. Our overall average is down $45 per ton from last week. Our price momentum on hot rolled steel is at Lower, meaning we expect prices to decrease over the next 30 days.