Analysis
October 2, 2022
Written by Michael Cowden
Our latest survey results are decidedly mixed. Lead times (like prices) continue to move modestly lower. You can find reasons to support your case in the latest data whether you’re an optimist or a pessimist.
Let’s take the case for optimism first.
Lead times for sheet and plate products continue to extend in a US steel market still in the grip of a historic supply squeeze, according to the latest SMU steel market survey data. Average lead times now extend into late January 2027, with some mills not quoting availability until mid/late February. Lead times for all sheet products except Galvalume stand at their highest point since the post-Covid demand snapback in 2021.
The results of the latest Steel Market Update (SMU) flat-rolled market survey are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in, look under the Data tab for Market Reports, and there you will find the Flat-Rolled Survey Results section. Previous survey results are also available on that page. If you need help accessing these results, or if your company would like to have your voice heard in our future surveys, contact smu@crugroup.com.
Open interest on CME Group’s hot-rolled (HR) coil futures contract typically builds throughout the month before dropping at the end of the month alongside contract settlement. Analysis in this report is based on an early month view of this open interest as well as prices. Notably, open interest for the HR coil contract is currently at a record high of 849,240 short tons (st) or 42,462 contracts. Open interest is up 13.8% m/m and 66% higher from the 511,480 st of open interest a year ago.
Ferrous scrap prices rose in November across all grades SMU tracks, though prices varied widely by region. “Marketwise, we saw disparate market movements between regions in the November trade, which wrapped up earlier this week,” one source told SMU. “It was a mixed bag, depending on the region and grade.”
Steel production has been suspended at a facility of Turkish steelmaker Habas following a deadly explosion, a source told SMU. SMU spoke with a source in Turkey who provided some further information after the incident at the mill in Aliaga, Turkey, occurred on Monday. (For background on the incident, click here.)