Economy
Consumer Confidence Falls Again in February
February 28, 2023
US consumer confidence slipped for the second straight month in February, according to the The Conference Board.
The Consumer Confidence Index fell to 102.9 in February vs. a downwardly revised figure of 106.0 in January.
“Consumer confidence declined again in February,” Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economics at The Conference Board, said in a statement. “The decrease reflected large drops in confidence for households aged 35 to 54 and for households earning $35,000 or more.”
He said that while consumers’ view of current business conditions worsened in February, the Present Situation Index inched up slightly “based on a more favorable view of the availability of jobs.”
The Present Situation Index rose to 152.8 this month from 151.1 in January.
Looking forward, the Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, declined to 69.7 in February from a downwardly revised 76.0 in January.
The Conference Board said the Expectations Index has now dipped “well below” 80—the level that often signals a recession within the next year. The Board noted it has been below this level for 11 of the last 12 months.
This has trickled down to spending habits. Ozyildirim said consumers may be showing early signs of pulling back spending in the face of high prices and rising interest rates.
“Fewer consumers are planning to purchase homes or autos, and they also appear to be scaling back plans to buy major appliances,” he added.
By Ethan Bernard, ethan@steelmarketupdate.com
Latest in Economy
SMU Community Chat: Tariff-induced panic purchases, inflation, and calculating costs
Chief executive of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), Tom Derry highlighted how reactive buying behavior has shifted the market into a quiet demand period. Derry presented ISM data during the weekly SMU community chat.
Architecture billings still sluggish despite project inquiry uptick
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI), a leading indicator for non-residential construction activity, declined for an eighth straight month in June.
Beige Book: Tariff pressures mount, flat outlook
All districts reported “experiencing modest to pronounced input cost pressures related to tariffs, especially for raw materials used in manufacturing and construction.”
Steel exports recovered in May but still historically low
US steel exports rose 10% from April to May but remained low compared to recent years. This came just one month after exports fell to the lowest level recorded in nearly five years.
AISI: Raw steel production ticks up near recent high
The volume of raw steel produced by US mills inched higher last week, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). After steadily increasing in April and May, domestic mill output stabilized in early June and has remained historically strong since.