Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Written by Becca Moczygemba
June 11, 2023
This weekend I was at my daughters’ swim meet. It’s a recreational summer league, so not all the kids are very competitive, but they all seem to have a great time cheering each other on.
The sportsmanship was unrivaled. All the kids shook each other’s hands after each heat, and nobody exited the water until the last swimmer touched the wall, even if the last swimmer was 30 seconds behind.
Being present at such a thrilling sporting event got me thinking about community. As I looked around, I noticed many of the parents were wearing their child’s team’s shirt. Most people had some type of identifier that told you who they were rooting for. But how do we in the steel industry do the same?
Every single person I have interviewed for our SMU Spotlight series has said the thing they love the most about the steel industry are the people. Our community. Just about every week we reach out to many of you to catch up on pricing, lead times, or whatever else is going on in the market. But there’s more to it than the market talk. I’ve had the opportunity to hear about baseball tournaments, high school graduations, and moving into universities. We’ve met up with our readers who live close to us, or people who contact us when they’re in town, and we get together.
I wish I had a crystal ball, because inevitably I get asked what the market is going to do. It’s been a roller coaster to say the least, but this week our Current Steel Buyers Sentiment Index is up vs. the previous market check. Though it’s not as high as it was at this time last year, buyers seem cautiously optimistic.
Most people who responded to our survey this week believe that lead times will be flat two months from now. I guess that’s something we can discuss at Steel Summit, which is also about two months from now.
So yes, we bring you pricing, lead times, market sentiment, and the like, but we’re more than that. Last year was my first year at Steel Summit and I finally understood what everyone had been saying. I like to think of it as a block party for the community that just so happens to have some really great speakers. And while nothing brings people closer together than wearing a swimsuit and screaming at your friends in the water (only kidding), we are all part of the same community, and we’re all swimming in the same direction.
By Becca Moczygemba, becca@steelmarketupdate.com

Becca Moczygemba
Read more from Becca MoczygembaLatest in Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Tariff-related noise aside, there is one basic factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Despite recent declines, HR prices remain at historically high levels. And there is no obvious support to keep them there.

Final Thoughts
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.

Final Thoughts
Despite some scary headlines lately (especially about Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell) this is not October 2008 (financial crisis) or March 2020 (onset of the pandemic). But it sure seems like we’ve taken a relatively strong economy and poured a thick sauce of uncertainty over it.

Final Thoughts
I put some of our survey data through ChatGpt, with interesting results.

Final Thoughts
Nearly 50% of respondents to our latest survey thought hot-rolled coil prices have already peaked. And where will those prices be two months from now? Responses were decidedly split on that question.