Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by Becca Moczygemba
June 11, 2023
This weekend I was at my daughters’ swim meet. It’s a recreational summer league, so not all the kids are very competitive, but they all seem to have a great time cheering each other on.
The sportsmanship was unrivaled. All the kids shook each other’s hands after each heat, and nobody exited the water until the last swimmer touched the wall, even if the last swimmer was 30 seconds behind.
Being present at such a thrilling sporting event got me thinking about community. As I looked around, I noticed many of the parents were wearing their child’s team’s shirt. Most people had some type of identifier that told you who they were rooting for. But how do we in the steel industry do the same?
Every single person I have interviewed for our SMU Spotlight series has said the thing they love the most about the steel industry are the people. Our community. Just about every week we reach out to many of you to catch up on pricing, lead times, or whatever else is going on in the market. But there’s more to it than the market talk. I’ve had the opportunity to hear about baseball tournaments, high school graduations, and moving into universities. We’ve met up with our readers who live close to us, or people who contact us when they’re in town, and we get together.
I wish I had a crystal ball, because inevitably I get asked what the market is going to do. It’s been a roller coaster to say the least, but this week our Current Steel Buyers Sentiment Index is up vs. the previous market check. Though it’s not as high as it was at this time last year, buyers seem cautiously optimistic.
Most people who responded to our survey this week believe that lead times will be flat two months from now. I guess that’s something we can discuss at Steel Summit, which is also about two months from now.
So yes, we bring you pricing, lead times, market sentiment, and the like, but we’re more than that. Last year was my first year at Steel Summit and I finally understood what everyone had been saying. I like to think of it as a block party for the community that just so happens to have some really great speakers. And while nothing brings people closer together than wearing a swimsuit and screaming at your friends in the water (only kidding), we are all part of the same community, and we’re all swimming in the same direction.
By Becca Moczygemba, becca@steelmarketupdate.com
Becca Moczygemba
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Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
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Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
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I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
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I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
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We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?