Steel Prices
SMU Price Ranges: HRC Falls Again on Sub-$800 Deals
Written by David Schollaert & Michael Cowden
July 26, 2023
Hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices fell for a second consecutive week as mills appear to have given up holding the line on $900 per ton ($45 per cwt) and amid discounting into the high $700s per ton.
SMU’s average HRC price now stands at $830 per ton, down $40 per ton from a week ago and marking the lowest point for hot band prices since early/mid-February.
Recall February saw a series of near-weekly sheet price hikes drive tags sharply higher. Those increases were supported in part by AHMSA stopping production and by a raft of spring maintenance outages among US mills.
Now, as far as we are aware, there is no raft of upcoming outages to ratchet back supplies. AHMSA being out is no longer a surprise. And the unplanned outage at SDI Sinton seems to have been shorter than some expected.
Prices for other products also fell. Cold rolled slipped $15 per ton, Galvalume dropped $45 per ton, and plate lost $30 per ton. Galvanized prices, in contrast, bucked the overall trend, rising by $15 per ton.
SMU has adjusted its sheet momentum indicators to lower on consecutive weekly declines and because of discounting among some mills. Our plate momentum indicator remains at neutral.
Hot-Rolled Coil
The SMU price range is $780–880 per net ton ($39.00–44.00 per cwt), with an average of $830 per ton ($41.50 per cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The bottom end of our range fell $60 per ton vs. one week ago, while the top end was down $20 per ton week on week (WoW). Our overall average is down $40 per ton WoW. Our price momentum indicator for hot-rolled coil moved from neutral to lower, meaning SMU expects prices will decline more over the next 30 days.
Hot-Rolled Lead Times: 3–6 weeks
Cold-Rolled Coil
The SMU price range is $970–1,100 per net ton ($48.50–55.00 per cwt), with an average of $1,035 per ton ($51.75 per cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range moved lower by $40 per ton WoW, while the top end was down $10 per ton compared to a week ago. Our overall average is down $25 per ton WoW. Our price momentum indicator on cold-rolled coil moved from neutral to lower, meaning SMU expects prices will decline more over the next 30 days.
Cold-Rolled Lead Times: 5–9 weeks
Galvanized Coil
The SMU price range is $1,000–1,050 per net ton ($50.000–52.50 per cwt), with an average of $1,025 per ton ($51.25 per cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range was up $30 per ton vs. last week, while the top end of our range was unchanged vs. one week ago. Our overall average is up $15 per ton vs. the prior week. Our price momentum indicator on galvanized steel remains at neutral, meaning direction is unclear over the next 30 days in light of the latest round of mill price hikes.
Galvanized .060” G90 Benchmark: SMU price range is $1,097–1,147 per ton with an average of $1,122 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.
Galvanized Lead Times: 3–10 weeks
Galvalume Coil
The SMU price range is $1,020–1,160 per net ton ($51.00–53.00 per cwt), with an average of $1,040 per ton ($52.00 per cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of the range edged higher by $10 per ton vs. last week, while the top end moved down by $100 per ton WoW. Our overall average decreased by $45 per ton when compared to one week ago. Our price momentum indicator on Galvalume steel moved from neutral to lower, meaning SMU expects prices will decline more over the next 30 days.
Galvalume .0142” AZ50, Grade 80 Benchmark: SMU price range is $1,314–1,354 per ton with an average of $1,334 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.
Galvalume Lead Times: 6–8 weeks
Plate
The SMU price range is $1,400–1,570 per net ton ($70.00–78.50 per cwt), with an average of $1,485 per ton ($74.25 per cwt) FOB mill. The lower end of our range was down $70 per ton compared to the prior week, while the top end of our range was unchanged WoW. Our overall average was down $35 per ton vs. the prior week. Our price momentum indicator on steel plate remains at neutral, meaning we are unsure of what direction prices will go over the next 30 days.
Plate Lead Times: 4–9 weeks
SMU Note: Below is a graphic showing our hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized, Galvalume, and plate price history. This data is available here on our website with our interactive pricing tool. If you need help navigating the website or need to know your login information, contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.
David Schollaert
Read more from David SchollaertMichael Cowden
Read more from Michael CowdenLatest in Steel Prices
HRC vs. prime scrap spread narrows in May
The spread between hot-rolled coil (HRC) and prime scrap prices narrowed this month, according to SMU’s most recent pricing data.
CRU: Falling steel prices limit demand for imports into US
The recent decline in US hot-rolled (HR) coil and longs prices has further restricted demand for imported material. Despite the decline in US sheet prices, CR coil and HDG imports remain attractive. While demand for imports of longs products has been limited, buyers have increased imports of wire products to avoid wire rods’ higher tariffs. […]
HR futures: Grinding lower while grinding to a halt
The last time we were together on April 18, the June hot-rolled coil (HRC) future was sitting around the $800 support level where the May future found a bottom in mid-February.
SMU price ranges: Sheet nears five-month lows
Steel prices were overall mixed this week, according to our latest check on the market. Sheet prices were flat to down, while plate prices inched up. SMU indices on hot rolled, cold rolled, and galvanized are now down to the lowest levels seen since November.
Galvanized prices maintain big premium over HR
Prices for hot-rolled (HR) coil in recent weeks have been declining faster than those for galvanized sheet, resulting in a growing price spread between the two steel products.