CRU
July 30, 2023
Written by Matthew Watkins
China recently became the world’s largest exporter of cars. Experience from the steel industry suggests this is not a trend that will reverse, though it might reduce. Changes in auto supply chains and metals demand outside China are likely.
CME Group’s hot-rolled coil futures have jumped higher as the loss of a reheating line at a large Southern mill have renewed domestic production issues. At market close on Oct. 12, the Q4'26 futures are now pricing in $1,295 per short ton (st) for HR coil, a month-over-month (m/m) increase of $63/st. For 2027, the forward curve is up $80 /st vs. September, at $1,207/st. For November 2026 through March 2027, prices are at an average just above $1,300/st.
CRU Research Principal speaks about the implication of Mesabi Metallics' proposed steel mill in Iowa.
CME Group’s HR coil futures have had a volatile stretch over the past few weeks.
Americas wire and cable demand held firm through H1 2026, as data center and energy infrastructure buildouts, driven by wider electrification and power supply investments, more than offset weakness in traditional construction sectors such as residential
For the next month, CRU forecasts that steelmaking raw materials demand will improve as buyers will restock ahead of seasonally stronger steel-demand periods.