Final Thoughts
November 5, 2023
Written by Michael Cowden
You could make a case that Nov. 1 was April Fool’s Day for steel – or at least for the widespread rumor that Cliffs would announce a $10-billion deal for U.S. Steel on that date.
I’m not going to endorse any precise date or price tag. But I’d be surprised if a deal – or at least some developments regarding one – isn’t announced sometime over the next month.
With the recent surge in steel prices and the increased melt rate, the price of ferrous scrap has only marginally improved.
The rally in steel sheet prices is officially a year old. We haven’t seen a yearlong price rally since 2021, when a snapback in demand following the early days of the pandemic resulted in one of the biggest steel market booms since World War II.
If the question is, “Brother, can you spare a spot ton?” The answer from many mills might be “No.” Or perhaps, in the case of hot-rolled (HR) coil, “Do you have $1,300 per ton?”
If you’re looking for a deal on steel, this last week wasn’t the one to find one. (Nor was the week before that. Or the week before that.) Meanwhile, contract negotiations are heating up in one of the tightest markets since at least 2021. I've heard discounts will be lower, min-max ranges will be tighter, and there will be less freight equalization and waiving extras.
First, a big thank you to everyone who attended SMU Steel Summit this week and the inaugural AMU Aluminum Summit as well. I’m not going to crow too much about it being another record year in terms of attendance. But it was—and you made that possible. Also, it’s always great to see the entire steel […]