• Skip to main content

    Final Thoughts

    Final Thoughts: As steel prices soar, why is scrap still grounded?

    Written by Stephen Miller


    Many of my colleagues and other players in the recycled iron and steel industry have asked me why a projected increase in demand for scrap hasn’t been realized considering the increased electric arc furnace (EAF) capacity added or scheduled to be installed in the US. They note that despite a surge in steel prices and an increased melt rate, the price of ferrous scrap has only marginally improved.

    Over the last 30 years, there has been a proliferation of EAF steel mills constructed in the US that use ferrous scrap as their main melting stock. This growth in scrap-consuming steelmakers spawned predictions of dramatically increased demand for scrap. As more and more EAF mills came on line in the 1993-2004 time period, prices for scrap did increase by roughly $200 per ton from the depressed levels of the previous decades.

    Stephen Miller

    Read more from Stephen Miller

    Latest in Final Thoughts

    Final Thoughts: Longer waits, higher stakes

    We’re in rarefied air for the US domestic steel industry. Mill lead times are approaching or even exceeding (in the case of plate) records set in 2021. Prices, meanwhile, are on an epic run—13 months and counting. Availability, not price, is the largest hurdle buyers are facing. And market participants think the shortage could stay around for a while. Incoming imports and mills catching up after fall maintenance could ease the squeeze. Even so, most sources do not expect meaningful relief until 2027.

    Final Thoughts: Is the steel market now tighter than in 2021?

    "Now, the problem is no longer the price. The problem is having access to steel." That would have made a good lead. But I can’t take credit for it. Those (very quotable) words are from Cleveland-Cliffs Chairman and CEO Lourenco Goncalves during the steelmaker’s quarterly earnings conference call on Monday. For a while, I thought the shortages we'd been hearing about might be mostly a problem for small- and mid-sized buyers. But we’re seeing even some of the biggest steel buyers talking openly about supply problems.