OEMs

Galvanized tags predicted to be flat into final stretch of 2024: HARDI

Written by Ethan Bernard

November 22, 2024

Domestic galvanized prices remain relatively rangebound despite the conclusion of the US presidential election.

“I think it’s been kind of interesting to see so much volatility in politics and steel prices pretty much flat,” SMU Managing Editor Michael Cowden said during this month’s virtual discussion about the galvanized market on Tuesday, Nov. 19.

“I think there’s been some talk of a Trump bump, but we haven’t seen it yet,” he added.

Each month, SMU is invited to join a discussion of the galvanized sheet market with the Sheet Metal/Air Handling Council of Heating, Air-Conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI). Participants are wholesalers, service centers, distributors, and manufacturers who buy or sell galvanized sheet.

Market dynamics

On October’s call, a whopping 88% of participants in a snap poll predicted that galvanized prices would be flat over the next month. The remainder thought prices would rise.

Prices have been “eerily stable,” said one sheet and HVAC distributor who participated in the call. “I don’t ever recall 88% of us thinking prices would remain stable.”

SMU’s current galvanized coil price stands at average $865/st FOB mill, east of the Rockies, as of Nov. 19. SMU’s interactive pricing tool shows our average galv price was $920/st a month ago. The average has been drifting below $900/st since the middle of October.

One service center call participant said demand has been steady and that inventories are ample. “I think it’s not as good as fourth quarter last year, obviously two different worlds,” he added.

He said he was at a recent trade conference and was surprised by what he found. “As far as overall 2025 outlook … I would say it was more positive than I thought it was going to be. So it was kind of pleasant to hear that,” he said.

A manufacturing call participant said that October was very consistent, “almost identical to the prior year.”

“So our business has been decent and very much on an upbeat tone for a couple of months now,” he said.

On inventory, he said his company is prepping for what may happen with the coated trade case. “We’re making sure that we’re getting our orders in to arrive here before the potential ramifications of that,” he added.

Galvanized sheet prices

Each month on the HARDI Sheet Metal/Air Handling Council call, a survey is conducted to see where members see galvanized steel prices moving in one, six, and 12 months.

This month, 81% of members on the call anticipated that galvanized prices would be flat (+/- $2/cwt) 30 days from now. Meanwhile, 13% thought prices would be up more than $2/cwt in a month, and the remaining 6% predicted they’d jump by more than $4/cwt.

As for pricing six months out, 63% thought galv prices will increase more than $2/cwt. Roughly 19% thought tags would be flat, while the remaining 18% predicted prices will be up more than $6/cwt.

Looking ahead a year from now, 71% think galv prices will be in the range of $50-59/cwt, while 29% anticipate a range of $40-49/cwt.

Ethan Bernard

Ethan Bernard is a reporter and editor for Steel Market Update. He previously worked for American Metal Market as a copy editor in the New York office for two years starting in 2008. Later, he copy edited AMM’s monthly magazine on a freelance basis from 2015 until 2017. With experience in financial copywriting and textbook publishing, he holds a BA in Comparative Literature from UC Berkeley, and an MFA. in Creative Writing from New York University. He can be reached at ethan@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-759-7871.

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