SMU Data and Models

SMU Survey: Steel Buyers' Sentiment Indices contrast at year end

Written by Brett Linton

December 20, 2024

SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices were mixed this week, with one Index hovering within a few points of a multi-year low, and the other climbing to a one-year high. Both of our Sentiment Indices remain in positive territory and indicate that steel buyers are optimistic about the success of their businesses.

Every other week, we poll hundreds of steel buyers on their companies’ chances of success in today’s market, as well as business expectations for three to six months down the road. We use this information to calculate our Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index and our Future Sentiment Index, measures tracked since SMU’s inception.

Current Sentiment

SMU’s Current Buyers’ Sentiment Index fell two points this week, slipping to a six-week low of +38 (Figure 1). This marks the fifth lowest reading seen in the past four years, only greater than a few readings seen earlier this year.

Although down, Current Sentiment shows that steel buyers remain positive about business conditions, though not as confident as in the first half of 2024.

This time last year Current Sentiment was significantly stronger at +69. Current Sentiment has averaged +48 across year-to-date, well below the +67 average in 2023.

Future Sentiment

SMU’s Future Buyers’ Sentiment Index inched up one point this week to +73, now marking the highest reading of 2024 (Figure 2). Recall that in early August, Future Sentiment fell to a one-year low of +55, quickly recovering to a nine-month high of +72 just two weeks later.

Future Sentiment also indicates that buyers maintain a positive outlook for early 2025 business conditions, more so than they have felt all year.

This time one year ago Future Sentiment stood at +68. Future Sentiment has averaged +65 since the start of the year, two points below the 2023 average.

What SMU survey respondents had to say:

“I think we’ll all be doing better after Trump gets in office and we’re past the holiday slow down.”

“We are treading water looking for more positive signs.”

“The economic environment should be more positive in 3-6 months.”

“We expect prices to increase soon, and with increased prices we expect to increase margins.”

“We will probably be fine, but our lead times are super fast based on limited/minimal demand.”

Moving averages

When analyzed on a three-month moving average basis, Steel Buyers Sentiment also moved in opposing directions this week compared to early December (Figure 3).

The Current Sentiment 3MMA eased to +37.51 as of Dec. 18. This is now the lowest 3MMA recorded since August 2020, when it was +35.00. Current Buyers Sentiment has trended lower for the last 10 months.

Meanwhile the Future Sentiment 3MMA increased yet again this week to a 11-month high of +69.06. This measure has gradually recovered following the one-year low observed in early September.

About the SMU Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index

The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index measures the attitude of buyers and sellers of flat-rolled steel products in North America. It is a proprietary product developed by Steel Market Update for the North American steel industry. Tracking steel buyers’ sentiment is helpful in predicting their future behavior. A link to our methodology is here. If you would like to participate in our survey, please contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.

Brett Linton

Brett Linton is a senior analyst for Steel Market Update, where he began his career. Linton has been in the steel industry since 2010. He has held roles as a category manager and strategic insights director at Reibus before returning to SMU in 2024. He is a graduate of The University of North Georgia with a degree in Finance and Accounting. Brett can be reached at brett@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-314-0179.

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