Market Data
December 12, 2025
SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment slips, future outlook hits 9-month high
Written by Kristen DiLandro
The latest SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices showed mixed results. The Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index eased after increasing nine percentage points in November. However, future Buyers’ Sentiment climbed to the highest level since March 2025.
Sentiment Indices continue to reflect that steel buyers are optimistic about their businesses ability to be successful in the future but feel their current market conditions are unfavorable.
Every other week, SMU polls thousands of steel industry executives asking how they rate their companies’ chances of success in today’s market, as well as three to six months down the road. Their responses are used to calculate our Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices, metrics we have tracked since 2008.
Current Sentiment
The Current Sentiment Index fell since the last survey, dropping nine points this week to +38 (Figure 1). This decrease follows a 10-point increase to +47 reflected in SMU’s Nov. 25 survey from +37 gathered from SMU’s Nov. 12 survey results. Year-to-date sentiment has averaged +41, down seven points from the same time frame of 2024. This time last year the index was coincidentally also +38.
Future Sentiment
Future Sentiment increased seven points to +64, the highest rate recorded since March (Figure 2). Future Sentiment readings have averaged +55 so far this year, down 10 points compared to the same period last year. Future Sentiment was nine points higher one year ago at +73.
What respondents are saying:
“We’ve learned a lot over the last few cycles. Hopefully, it will continue to pay off in practice.”
“I’d love to see consumer confidence pick up a smidge and maybe for the HRC prices to stop this steady climb towards $1,000/st.”
“Uncertainty is still an issue.”
“If our customers’ expectations are correct, then the first half of next year is going to be really good for us. If finance institutions are correct, the second half will be good as well.”
“We are expecting customers to spend more freely in ’26 and for steel pricing to erode a bit (which is good for our manufacturing side).”
Sentiment trends
Sentiment indices can be analyzed on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis to smooth out short-term swings.
The Current Sentiment 3MMA ticked up to +37.13, the highest it has been since July (Figure 3, left). The Future Sentiment 3MMA increased to +55.26, reaching its highest level since May. (Figure 3, right).
About the SMU Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index
The SMU Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index measures the attitude of buyers and sellers of flat-rolled steel products in North America. It is a proprietary product developed by Steel Market Update for the North American steel industry. Tracking steel buyers’ sentiment is helpful in predicting their future behavior. View our methodology here. If you would like to participate in our survey, please contact us at smu@crugroup.com.
