Miller on Scrap: Optimism in market as we kick off new year?

North Central/Great Lakes

One executive in the North Central/Great Lakes region said, “I’ve been pessimistic during the last year and have been right. I want to be optimistic now.” 

However, he said he still doesn’t see the numbers adding up to a level where the scrap markets can see appreciable improvement.   

A quick look around his area doesn’t reveal an increase in buying levels, as steel prices have not increased and the melt rates are still static to down.

Another hurdle for the Chicago district is the lock closing on the Illinois River. The flow of barges going south is limited and will shut off in late January. This will keep scrap from flowing to the mills along the Lower Mississippi River and increase the amount available for Chicago area-based buyers during most of Q1’25.

South

Traveling to the South, an executive there believes there is no January upside in the region, but “no downside, either.” 

Most scrap buyers are still on holiday until next week. There should be more information available then, he added. He was unsure about the restricted scrap flows from Chicago caused by the Illinois River lock closing affecting prices in the region.

Keeping on track

It may be a little too early to get a reliable handle on what scrap prices will do as we begin the new year. SMU will follow up as more information becomes available on domestic activity.