Market Data
January 9, 2025
Written by Brett Linton
Buyers participating in our first market survey of 2025 reported a slight decline in mill lead times compared to our last survey in mid-December.
After rising moderately in early December, lead times edged lower through this week and are now only slightly above the lows seen back in July and November.
The latest tally of active drilling rigs held steady in the US for a fourth straight week, while activity rose further in Canada this week, according to oil and gas rig count data published by Baker Hughes. The US rig count remained unchanged at 603 rigs this week, maintaining a 17-month high. Compared with this time last year, 57 more rigs are in operation today. Canada’s count rose by six to 226 rigs this week, gaining ground for a second consecutive week. Activity is up from the same week of 2025, with 39 more rigs operating today.
In my last column, the HRC futures curve was pricing a sizable premium on near-term tightness while still pointing toward eventual normalization. Since then, that basic story has remained intact, but the shape of the curve has shifted meaningfully. Rather than simply moving higher and pushing the peak out by another month, as has largely been the pattern throughout this rally, the curve is now pricing a more pronounced and prolonged period of tightness, while the long end has remained relatively anchored, which previously had also been lifted with the rest of the curve.
The majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that mills continue to hold a firm grip on prices. The share of buyers reporting that mills were negotiable fell this week to the lowest rate seen in over five years. Every two weeks, SMU surveys service center and manufacturer buyers asking if mills are negotiable on new spot sheet and plate orders. In this week’s survey, just 3% of respondents said mills were willing to talk price to secure an order (Figure 1). This is down 11 percentage points from our mid-October survey.
The results of the latest Steel Market Update (SMU) flat-rolled market survey are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in, look under the Data tab for Market Reports, and there you will find the Flat-Rolled Survey Results section. Previous survey results are also available on that page. If you need help accessing these results, or if your company would like to have your voice heard in our future surveys, contact smu@crugroup.com.
The busy fall maintenance season isn’t over yet. Mill outages have rolled along since September, squeezing an already tight sheet market heading into November and beyond. Another round of scheduled maintenance is approaching, with outages still ahead at North Star BlueScope, ArcelorMittal Calvert, and Nucor Berkeley. Much of the fall maintenance calendar is now in the rearview mirror. September and October outages included U.S. Steel’s Gary Works; Nucor’s Hickman, Decatur, Gallatin and Crawfordsville operations; Steel Dynamics’ Sinton and Columbus mills; Cleveland-Cliffs’ Dearborn hot strip mill; NLMK Portage; and Big River Steel Works.