AMU
February 13, 2025
Written by Greg Wittbecker
Canada remains at risk from several import duties on its exports of aluminum to the US.
On March 4, it may face a 10% duty under the heading of criterial mineral imports after being threatened with a 25% tariff against it and Mexico. There is a view that aluminum will get the same treatment as the announced 10% tariff on Canadian crude.
Base metals had a mixed week. Tin lost almost 4% on the week, finishing at $53,000/ton. Prices dropped to a low of $51,259/ton at one point. Aluminum was another loser, off by about 1.6% on the week. Investors are expecting more aluminum supply going forward, especially out of China and Indonesia. Copper prices tacked on 1.1%. They have now recovered more than half of the $700/ton loss sustained (over the course of a week) following reports/rumors in mid-September that US tariffs on refined copper imports might not proceed after all.
Recycler forward expectations swung toward oversupply in September as inventory drawdowns eased and export demand lost August’s improving responses.
Kibar Americas said production has started at its aluminum plant in Fairmont, W.Va., where it will manufacture products for the HVAC, packaging, automotive and industrial sectors.
China is bumping up against its official primary production capacity limit of 45.3 million metric tons/year, but production can still increase through “capacity creep.”
Automotive aluminum demand is rising as extrusions, sheet, and castings gain ground across vehicle applications and powertrains.