Features

HVAC equipment shipments increase in January
Written by Brett Linton
March 14, 2025
Following December’s 11-month low, total heating and cooling equipment shipments rebounded 8% in January, according to the latest data released by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI).
January shipments increased by 132,000 units or 8% month over month (m/m) to 1.69 million units (Figure 1, left). This marks the eighth consecutive month of positive annual growth, 14% higher than shipment levels one year earlier, and the highest January shipment level seen since 2022. This recovery follows typical seasonal slowdowns as air conditioner and heat pump shipments decline each winter.
Trends
To smooth out seasonal fluctuations, monthly shipment data can be calculated on a 12-month moving average (12MMA) basis to better highlight long-term trends. On this annualized basis, total shipments peaked in early 2022 following the post-Covid surge, then declined through late 2023. Shipments began to recover in early 2024 and have done so each month since. The latest 12MMA through January has reached a 22-month high of 1.88 million units (Figure 1, right).

Shipments by product
- Water heater shipments increased 3% m/m in January to 791,000 units, 1% higher than levels seen one year ago.
- Shipments of warm air furnaces rose 2% in January to 274,000 units. Compared to the same month last year, January shipments were 25% higher this year.
- Air conditioners and heat pump shipments rebounded in January following six months of declines, jumping 20% m/m to 623,000 units. January shipments were 30% higher than the same month last year. Note that air conditioner/heat pump shipments are very seasonal, as evident in Figure 2.

All products see annual growth
Figure 3 shows the annual growth rate of shipments by product on a 12MMA basis:
- Air conditioners and heat pumps experienced the largest annual gain, rising 15% from the previous year to one of the strongest annual growth rates witnessed since 2021.
- Warm air furnace shipments grew by 8% year over year (y/y), one of the highest rates witnessed in the past three years.
- Water heater shipments saw a modest annual increase of 1%. This growth rate has been steadily declining since the middle of 2024.

An interactive history of heating and cooling equipment shipment data is available here on our website. If you need assistance, please contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.

Brett Linton
Read more from Brett LintonLatest in Features

Final Thoughts
Tariff-related noise aside, there is one basic factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Despite recent declines, HR prices remain at historically high levels. And there is no obvious support to keep them there.

Get an inside look at steelmaking at SMU’s Steel 101 workshop
If you’re looking to build a solid foundation in steel or sharpen the knowledge you already have, the SMU Steel 101 Workshop is a great place to start. Our next workshop will be held in Memphis, Tenn. on June 10-11, 2025

AISI: Raw steel production climbs to 7-month high
US steel mills produced more raw steel last week than they have over the past seven months, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute.

Final Thoughts
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.

Price: Expect new trade shocks as Trump’s ‘reciprocal’ tariff negotiations continue
President Trump cast a wide net with the proposed, reciprocal tariffs. The negotiating stage will be critical to determining the success of his strategy. And for those suffering tariff whiplash, don’t expect the pace of change to slow down just because the reciprocal tariffs are entering a negotiating phase.