AMU
March 14, 2025
Written by Greg Wittbecker
As we go to press, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) derivative contract on Midwest premiums shows March at $0.411 cents per pound with April/May around $0.397 cents and the second half of 2025 at $0.3750.
All these numbers reflect a discount to what premiums should be trading at under different duty scenarios.
Base metals had a mixed week. Tin lost almost 4% on the week, finishing at $53,000/ton. Prices dropped to a low of $51,259/ton at one point. Aluminum was another loser, off by about 1.6% on the week. Investors are expecting more aluminum supply going forward, especially out of China and Indonesia. Copper prices tacked on 1.1%. They have now recovered more than half of the $700/ton loss sustained (over the course of a week) following reports/rumors in mid-September that US tariffs on refined copper imports might not proceed after all.
Recycler forward expectations swung toward oversupply in September as inventory drawdowns eased and export demand lost August’s improving responses.
Kibar Americas said production has started at its aluminum plant in Fairmont, W.Va., where it will manufacture products for the HVAC, packaging, automotive and industrial sectors.
China is bumping up against its official primary production capacity limit of 45.3 million metric tons/year, but production can still increase through “capacity creep.”
Automotive aluminum demand is rising as extrusions, sheet, and castings gain ground across vehicle applications and powertrains.