Economy
New York state manufacturing activity tumbles in March
Written by Brett Linton
March 18, 2025
After a modest recovery in February, business activity in New York state’s manufacturing sector declined sharply in March, according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Respondents expressed waning optimism for future business conditions, citing weak capital spending plans, rising input costs, and tightening supply.
“Input price increases climbed for a third straight month to hit their fastest pace in more than two years,” commented New York Fed economic research advisor Richard Deitz. The full release is available here.
The General Business Conditions Index contracted by 26 points in March to a one-year low of -20.0. This is a diffusion index, where a positive reading signifies expansion from the prior month, zero indicates no change, and a negative reading signifies contraction.
The Empire State Manufacturing Index has only signaled improving business conditions in 10 of the past 30 months. One year ago the Index stood at -20.9.
Trends
To smooth monthly fluctuations, the Index can be recalculated on a three-month moving average basis (3MMA) to better highlight trends. On this basis, the Index slipped seven points from February to March to an eight-month low of -9.0 (Figure 1). Last year we saw dramatic swings in the 3MMA; it tumbled to a near four-year low of -22.3 in March, then climbed to a near three-year high of 10.3 by November.
An interactive history of the Empire State Manufacturing Index is available here on our website.
Brett Linton
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