Features
SMU Week in Review: March 31 - April 6
Written by Stephanie Ritenbaugh
April 5, 2025
The constant flow of information we all receive can be a bit overwhelming, but SMU is here to help with a weekly snapshot.
And… this week there are more tariffs. But, before that, here’s some late-breaking news from Friday.
The US Commerce Department released preliminary anti-dumping margins in a trade case targeted imports of coated flat-rolled steel, or CORE, from 10 countries. Certain countries and mills were hammered while others were largely spared. We have the details.
Meanwhile, President Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” arrived on April 2, announcing reciprocal tariffs of 10%-49% on imports. But there are some very important exceptions: The United States’ USMCA partners, Canada and Mexico, are excluded from the reciprocal tariffs for now. In addition, steel, aluminum, as well as autos and auto parts are excluded from the reciprocal tariffs. That’s because they are already subject to Section 232 tariffs.
As you can imagine with something this sweeping, there are a lot of opinions. US steel trade groups representing mills had a far more positive reaction to Trump’s latest taxes than the leading recycled metals association. The American Iron and Steel Institute and Steel Manufacturers Association were widely supportive of the president’s measures on imports. But others are bracing for impact.
Still, quite frankly, tracking products at the border can be complicated, as our sister publication Aluminum Market Update, points out. The bottom line: keep your receipts.
Surveys
SMU’s Buyers’ Sentiment Indices declined. Current sentiment stands at its lowest level since the beginning of the year. Future sentiment is at its lowest level in nearly two years. And, SMU’s Current Scrap Buyers’ Sentiment Index remained flat this month, while the Future Sentiment Index declined. We have more details in the links above.
The week ahead highlights
Wednesday, April 9: Algoma Steel CEO Michael Garcia will be the featured guest on SMU’s Community Chat webinar at 11 a.m. ET. Register for free to join the timely conversation.
Thursday, April 10: Consumer price index
Friday, April 11: Producer price index
Stephanie Ritenbaugh
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Final Thoughts
Tariff-related noise aside, there is one basic factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Despite recent declines, HR prices remain at historically high levels. And there is no obvious support to keep them there.
Get an inside look at steelmaking at SMU’s Steel 101 workshop
If you’re looking to build a solid foundation in steel or sharpen the knowledge you already have, the SMU Steel 101 Workshop is a great place to start. Our next workshop will be held in Memphis, Tenn. on June 10-11, 2025
AISI: Raw steel production climbs to 7-month high
US steel mills produced more raw steel last week than they have over the past seven months, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute.
Final Thoughts
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.
Price: Expect new trade shocks as Trump’s ‘reciprocal’ tariff negotiations continue
President Trump cast a wide net with the proposed, reciprocal tariffs. The negotiating stage will be critical to determining the success of his strategy. And for those suffering tariff whiplash, don’t expect the pace of change to slow down just because the reciprocal tariffs are entering a negotiating phase.