Apparent steel supply increases in June

Apparent supply totaled 8.91 million short tons (st) in June, a 247,000 st increase from May. This marks the second-highest monthly supply rate seen since 2022, just behind the 8.98 million st peak seen earlier this year in January. June supply was 10% higher than the same month last year.

Over the past three years, supply has fluctuated within a stable range, averaging 8.46 million st per month (Figure 1). However, recent months have shown increased volatility. Last November, supply fell to a near four-year low (7.65 million st), then rebounded in January to a two-and-a-half year high (8.98 million st). For context, the highest measure recorded in our 15-year data history was 10.90 million st in October 2014, while the lowest was 6.52 million st in June 2020.

Trends

Supply can be calculated on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis to better highlight underlying trends by smoothing out monthly fluctuations (Figure 2). On this basis, supply peaked in late 2021 at 9.87 million st and bottomed out by the end of 2022. After touching a four-year low of 7.93 million st last November, the 3MMA has recovered almost each month since, rising to a near three-year high of 8.74 million st through June.

Figure 3 shows the individual components of apparent supply and how they changed from May to June:

• Domestic shipments increased 5% to a five-month high of 8.91 million st, accounting for 88% of total supply.
• Finished steel imports fell 7% to 1.68 million st, one of the lower rates seen this year.
• Steel exports slipped 3% to 618,000 st, the third-lowest rate recorded in the last year and a half.
• Net imports (finished imports minus exports) made up 12% of June’s supply, down from 13% the previous month, but equal to one year ago.

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