Features

SMU Scrap Survey: Current Sentiment rises as future Sentiment falls

Written by Ethan Bernard & Stephen Miller

September 8, 2025

SMU’s Current Sentiment Index for scrap increased this month while our Future Sentiment Index declined, according to the latest data from our ferrous scrap survey.

This comes as market sources report obsolescent grades traded sideways in September. Busheling, meanwhile, was seen down $20 per gross ton (gt).

Current Sentiment Index

SMU’s Current Sentiment Index for scrap rose three points to +72 in September vs. +69 a month earlier. This is well within the 63-77 band we’ve seen it in since February.

Future Sentiment Index

SMU’s Future Sentiment Index for scrap dipped by two points to +81 compared with August. Even with the drop, future sentiment continues to track higher than current sentiment.

What’s the word on the street?

The word on the street is the market was a bit sloppy in September. There was dealer resistance to dropping prices on shredded and HMS. And flow on these grades has fallen off a bit.

But sellers did not resist a $20/gt decline in prime grades because much of the trade in prime is governed by formula pricing.

About SMU’s Scrap Sentiment

SMU’s Current and Future Scrap Sentiment Indices mirror the Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices in our flat-rolled steel survey. Our Scrap Sentiment Indices are both diffusion indices. Readings above 50 indicate a more bullish outlook, while readings below 50 indicate a more bearish one.

Sentiment is only one of the indicators we measure. Our scrap survey, like our steel survey, is available only to premium members. If you would like to upgrade from executive to premium, please contact SMU account executive Luis Corona at luis.corona@crugroup.com. If you’re interested in participating in our scrap survey, please reach out to david@steelmarketupdate.com.

Ethan Bernard

Ethan Bernard is managing editor for Steel Market Update. He previously worked for American Metal Market as a copy editor in the New York office for two years, starting in 2008. Later, he copy edited AMM’s monthly magazine on a freelance basis from 2015 until 2017. With experience in financial copywriting and textbook publishing, he holds a BA in Comparative Literature from UC Berkeley, and an MFA. in Creative Writing from New York University. He can be reached at ethan@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-759-7871.

Stephen Miller

Stephen Miller started his career in the scrap metal industry in 1978 at Luria Brothers in Cleveland. Over the last 40+ years, he has worked in all capacities in the trading business. He has had positions in both domestic and international scrap trading. In addition to scrap, Miller was at the forefront of the pig iron trade and established a pig iron distribution company under the name of Ferrosource, Inc. Most recently, Miller has concentrated on the scrap export market and regularly does consulting for several companies in the industry.