HVAC equipment shipments down through July

Total July shipments were down 7% m/m to a four-month low of 1.77 million units, 13% less than the same month last year (Figure 1, left).

Although total shipments fell this month, year-to-date volumes remain strong. Over 13 million units were produced in the first seven months of the year, the fourth-highest rate in our 19-year data history.

Trends

To smooth out seasonal swings, shipments can be annualized using a 12-month moving average (12MMA). On this basis, total shipments peaked in early 2022 following the post-Covid surge, then declined through late 2023. A recovery began in early 2024 and continued through May of this year, with annualized shipments climbing to a two-and-a-half year high of 1.89 million units. In June, we saw this streak break as the 12MMA slipped to 1.86 million units, and now slipped again in July to 1.84 million units. Still the total is up 3% year over year (y/y) (Figure 1, right).

Shipments by product

• Following March’s three-year high, water heater shipments fell for the third consecutive month to a six-month low of 782,000 units. Although down 5% m/m, July levels were up 2% y/y. 
• Shipments of warm-air furnaces declined 6% m/m to 262,200 units in July, down 6% from the same month last year. This follows one full year of positive annual growth.
• Air conditioners and heat pump shipments fell 9% m/m from June’s 763,400 units. July shipments are down 27% y/y. Note that these shipments are highly seasonal, as shown in Figure 2.

Annual growth driven by cooling equipment

Figure 3 shows the annual growth rate of shipments by product on a 12MMA basis. From this angle, annualized shipments are still holding up for most products, though weakness lingers in a few categories:

• Air conditioner and heat pump shipments were 5% higher on an annualized basis compared to the same period one year ago. July represents the 10th consecutive month of positive annual growth, but is one of the lower rates seen this year.
• Warm-air furnace shipments again experienced a large annualized gain, rising 11% y/y and the ninth month in a row to see growth.
• Water heater shipments contracted for the sixth consecutive month, down 2% y/y. This rate has steadily eased following the mid-2024 peak.

An interactive history of heating and cooling equipment shipment data is available here on our website. If you need assistance navigating our website, please contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.