HARDI members suspect galvanized steel prices have hit the floor

Galvanized steel base prices averaged ~$48/cwt in September. The base price dropped by $10/st month-over-month. The price on Sept. 1 was $963/short ton (st) compared to $973/st in August.

You can use the SMU interactive pricing tool to find pricing data for steel and scrap.

Monthly conditions

On the call, participants said mills are less willing to negotiate prices. They said quotes are slightly elevated and that producers named seasonal maintenance outages as a cause for the new pricing environment.

SMU provides sheet market updates to the council of wholesalers, service centers, distributors, and manufacturers who buy or sell galvanized steel on each month’s call.

Some participants said they were eager to assess the impact that fewer steel imports into the US would have on their respective businesses. Most conceded that they had ample steel to sell and that the market was particularly competitive at present.

One caller said, “There are more players fighting for an already small piece of the pie.”

While another claimed that some pricing strategies implemented to lock in immediate sales were surprisingly irreverent.

“I thought the strategy was a pretty bold move,” he said.

Commentary

One executive from a large service center in the Midwest finds that mills are only willing to negotiate so much on pricing, leading him to the conclusion that prices are at their floor.

“From our perspective, we really feel we’ve hit a bottom. We’re finding a lot of friction with the mills at certain levels that we had not gotten in previous months. That, to me, is indicating that we are near a bottom,” he said.

Noting also that “the last three months, or so, have been going in kind of a downward direction. We are hearing a lot of our sources claiming two to four outages is the reason provided by mills for the unwillingness to lower prices.”

A different service center market participant conceded to feeling the same pinches as the executive source, but remains bullish on the last quarter of 2025.

“Demand is okay. Our inventory levels are good. We should see fourth quarter seasonal demand, which is typical after the summer doldrums, along with fewer imports and then those mill outages; that should be enough to kick prices back up,” he said.

Another HVAC call participant noted seeing some price volatility. He explained that some of his offers were now subject to change based on mills’ commitment to holding prices.

“We’re also seeing that even though we have some deals on the table, it’s uncertain whether they’ll hold or how long they are going to hold that pricing,” he said.

He also noted, “Competition is fierce out there. As was mentioned, there’s a lot of people bidding on a little bit. Any of the gauges that are at the core of HVAC, everybody seems to have that inventory.”

Outlook

Beyond the flat pricing prediction for the next 30 days, participants weighed in on the pricing outlook for galvanized steel base prices for the next six and 12 months.

Fifty-three percent of poll respondents said that galvanized prices will increase by more than $2/cwt in the next six months. Twenty-six percent said prices for the same time period will be up more than $6/cwt, while 11% expect the prices to continue to hold at current levels, give or take $2/cwt. The remaining 11% anticipate price decreases of more than $2/cwt.

Three-quarters of poll participants expect galvanized steel to range between $50-59/cwt within the next 12 months. Another 20% believe the prices will be between $40-49/cwt, and 5% said prices will go as high as $60-69/cwt.

SMU participates in a monthly steel conference call hosted by HARDI and dedicated to better understanding the galvanized steel market. The participants are HARDI member companies, wholesalers who supply products to the construction markets. Also on the call are service centers and manufacturing companies that either buy or sell galvanized sheet and coil products used in the HVAC industry and are suppliers to HARDI member companies.