AMU Survey: Lead times for extrusions, sheet, primary diverge

Conversely, primary products eased slightly, slipping to just under 4.9 weeks.

Extrusions

The sharpest product-level increase came from mill-finished 6061 and 6063 extrusions, each up by 2.67 weeks month over month. While most readers likely expected longer auto body sheet lead times, given the ongoing shutdown of Novelis’ Oswego mill, the jump in extrusion lead times was less anticipated.

The increase in extrusion lead times reportedly stems from a mix of capacity management, logistical hang-ups, and selective quoting among producers that are recalibrating their order books as they close the year.

Supply-side decisions

Responses included input from participants handling 6061 and 6063 separately as well as those who quoted both alloys, showing that the change extended across extrusion types and signaled a broader shift in how buyers and suppliers are managing schedules and sourcing.

The shift suggests mills are stretching schedules intentionally, emphasizing continuity of large-volume commitments and margin protection over short-term throughput.

Respondents also said for the semi-fabricated product supply, new US capacity does not seem to be keeping pace with the orders they see, even though scrap availability looks adequate. That combination can be read as availability of inputs not being the binding constraint for some buyers — timing and allocations are more likely to be the driver.

Others noted easier access to scrap alongside softer billet demand. Taken with the weak readings in construction- and transportation-focused participants answers to demand questions, this appears consistent with slower pull-through.

Imports and lagged impacts

Some respondents are qualifying suppliers outside the US, a process that takes time and may contribute to longer windows while approvals are pending. At the same time, several traders reported some of the longest quoted windows in the survey.

In a few cases, their October figures carried over from already extended September figures, and a handful noted still longer intervals on top of those.

That pattern implies traders who are importing material are experiencing longer lead times than those sourcing from domestic mills, even as most producers in the survey described relatively steady conditions.

A few comments also pointed to shifting freight lanes and higher trucking costs, which can extend delivery timing, even after production.

Several participants also noted rising fabrication costs moving forward and said further finishing processes, which impact both extrusion and coil, are extending their own lead times even more sharply than the increase in certain semi-fabricated products.

Feedstock unmoved

Yet, during the same period, primary billet lead times softened. The disconnect is noteworthy.

Primary billet lead times softened slightly in October by three-tenths of a week to 5.7 weeks.

If billet produced from remelt sources typically compete, at least partially, with primary billet on a substitution basis except where alloy chemistry is fixed, this can indicate remelt billet availability likely remains steady as well. Keep in mind the comments participants made about greater scrap availability. In that case, any pressure from higher up the chain would appear to be less about input scarcity than about how mills are allocating capacity.

Based on qualitative feedback juxtaposed against the lead time figures, it seems as though the extrusion market’s extending queues are more a matter of allocation strategies, rather than supply/demand shifts.

Sheet

Lead times in the sheet market moved very differently from those in extrusions. Whereas both 6061 and 6063 extrusions shifted in near lockstep, seemingly driven largely by allocation and scheduling choices, sheet products split sharply by type.

Auto body, beverage can and common alloy sheet each followed distinct paths, with averages diverging in both direction and magnitude.

The variation points to a market responding less to production strategy and more to underlying supply-demand fundamentals within specific end-use segments.

Overall, the average lead time for end market-agnostic sheet softened by a tenth of a week to 6.4 weeks at the end of October, down from 6.5 weeks the prior month.

Auto body sheet

Lead times for auto body sheet (ABS) remain under pressure as OEM procurement overlaps with the continued shutdown at Novelis’ Oswego mill, which has constrained domestic automotive sheet availability.

Lead times for ABS jumped to 8.25 weeks in October from an already elevated 6 weeks in September — the month when the Oswego fire occurred.

The month-to-month swing in auto body sheet lead times looks sharp enough to invite deeper explanation, but there isn’t much mystery behind it.

The timing lines up cleanly with the fire at the Oswego mill, which curtailed a major source of domestic (and un-tariffed) automotive sheet. Because the incident occurred midway through last month’s survey period and gained broader industry attention only after responses had closed, the October results represent the first full reporting cycle to capture its impact. The mill is expected to partially resume operations by year end, which should bring lead times back toward normal levels once order books stabilize.

Common alloy sheet

Common alloy sheet, the grade cited by the largest share of respondents, fell to 6.5 weeks in October from an already elevated seven weeks in September. That movement, however, carried limited implications from end-market demand. What stood out instead was where respondents sat along the value chain.

Those furthest downstream — closest to finished-product fabrication and installation — reported the shortest lead times, while midstream entities like service centers as well as traders reported some of the longest. That seems like an inversion of the usual pattern. In typical conditions, distributors and service centers secure faster access to mill output through volumes contracts, while smaller downstream fabricators wait longer. This month’s responses show the opposite.

Traders’ longer lead times can be tied to shipping and freight disruptions, including the rerouting of Chinese vessels ahead of looming port fees and slower container traffic.

The case of service centers is harder to parse.

One explanation may be downstream respondents are quoting lead times from service centers rather than directly from mills, while those same service centers are reporting their own replenishment cycles from producers, which are lengthening. That split would make downstream buyers appear to have shorter windows, even as the service centers supplying them have longer intervals on new mill orders.

Timing also seems to play a role.

Several service-center respondents appear well stocked at present and are focused on moving existing material before year end. With inventories ample and near-term demand muted, longer mill lead times are tolerable for now, but they point to a potential lagged impact once replenishment become necessary.

One respondent specifically noted new semi-fabricated supply is tightening, and that’s expected to continue in Q1’26. A delayed impact may help explain why midstream participants are reporting longer quoted intervals even though downstream buyers see shorter ones. The survey captures two points in the same supply chain at different stages of the cycle.

Beverage can sheet

Beverage can sheet eased by a similar margin as common alloy sheet, down half a week to 4.5 weeks in October. While Novelis’ Oswego mill produces some can sheet, its share of total US capacity is modest, and the ramp-ups at the Bay Minette and Columbus rolling mills are expanding domestic availability.

Can sheet has also been the steadiest product line through the year, showing minimal disruption from tariffs or trade adjustments.

For most respondents, that segment continues to move on predictable lead times and consistent delivery cadence.

Additionally, the fourth quarter marks the slow period for beverage can manufacturers, as demand for cold, canned drinks falls with cooler weather and the alcoholic-beverage segment that benefits from the start of football, hockey, and basketball seasons has already packaged most of its volumes earlier in the year.

Don’t miss the companion piece to this analysis: AMU Survey: Respondents expect Midwest premium to climb in November