Manufacturers/End Users
November 16, 2025
Heating and cooling equipment shipments weakened through September
Written by Brett Linton
US shipments of heating and cooling equipment fell 7% in September from August to the lowest monthly rate of the year, according to the latest data released by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI).
September shipments are typically slightly above average, but this September came in much softer than usual. Shipments totaled 1.57 million units, 17% less than the same month last year (Figure 1, left). And shipments of warm-air furnaces and air conditioners/heat pumps both declined month over month (m/m), while water heater shipments increased.
Trends
Shipments can be annualized using a 12-month moving average (12MMA) to smooth out seasonal swings. On this basis, shipments peaked in early 2022 after the post-Covid surge, then fell through late 2023. A recovery began in early 2024 and continued through May of this year, when the 12MMA reached a two-and-a-half-year high of 1.89 million units. That streak ended in June, and the 12MMA has fallen each month since. Through September it stood at 1.78 million units, down 1% year over year (y/y) and the first annual contraction seen in 11 months (Figure 1, right).
Shipments by product vary
- After five consecutive monthly declines, water heater shipments recovered 8% m/m in September to a three-month high of 752,000 units, up 12% y/y.
- Shipments of warm-air furnaces declined 6% m/m to 285,000 units, down 7% from the same month last year.
- Air conditioners and heat pump shipments fell 22% m/m to a nine-month low of 529,000 units. September shipments are down 41% y/y, marking the fifth consecutive month of negative annual growth. Note that these shipments are highly seasonal, as shown in Figure 2.
Annual comparisons
Figure 3 shows the annual growth rate of shipments by product on a 12MMA basis. From this angle, annualized warm-air furnaces shipments remain strong, while air conditioners/heat pumps and water heater shipments are down:
- Warm-air furnace shipments experienced the largest annualized gain, with the September 12MMA up 10% compared to the same period one year prior (the 11th straight month of annual growth). However, this growth rate has been shrinking across the last four months.
- Air conditioner and heat pump shipments were down 5% y/y on a 12MMA basis. After 11 months of annual growth, September marks the first month of contraction; the 12MMA growth rate has declined sharply since May.
- Water heater shipments contracted for the eighth consecutive month, down 1% y/y. This rate has trended steadily lower since the mid‑2024 peak.
