Market Data
November 21, 2025
HR market looks for deals as prices increase
Written by Kristen DiLandro
Sources say domestic mill lead times and consumer spot prices have increased this week. Some believe certain large service centers can deliver quickly and charge below the published price range.
Voices from the market
“It used to be unheard of that a service center would be cost effective compared to the mill,” a veteran family-owned service center operator said, “but now, with so much inventory to dump, larger centers are eager to make deals.”
The same service center source says that the market went from “confused to confusing.”
“A couple weeks ago everyone was scratching their heads. Now, it just seems confusing. Super centers tell customers they are getting deals from mills, but we know they’re cutting deals to clear out inventory,” the source noted.
Mills told buyers they are booked out through January by “mass bookings.” Sources claim mills use that explanation to push up spot prices.
A source in the Mid-Atlantic contends mills are introducing small hikes. The aim is to establish a stronger pricing floor before the bustling first quarter.
“It used to be that mills would just brazenly increase spot prices by $100 per short ton (st) and everyone would have to manage it. Now, we’re seeing the mills prime the pump and work buyers up to the new prices,” he said.
He added, “It’s a better system. Customers will buy stock if the price isn’t up $100/st. With no demand, the mills can’t take a chance with hikes like they used to.”
Another steel service center associate in the Midwest said his week has been status quo. He expects that, despite price increases, some will try to move inventory at below-market prices.
“Lead times for hot-rolled coils are still four weeks. But if you need cold-rolled or HDG, you’ll have to wait six or seven weeks. Demand is weakening since we are heading into the holiday season,” he said.
“We have seen a rather abrupt drop in sales over the past few weeks and after this week, it will be in the basement,” the associate added.
The first service center source also believes that seasonality is playing a large role in suppressing current demand. “No one has demand this time of year. It’s standard to see prices nudge up for the next year with little demand at the end of the calendar year.”
Prices
This week SMU assessed the domestic spot market price range for transactions of HRC was $820-900/st, averaging $860/st.
The new range reflects a $30/st gain from the prior week and is the highest price range in four weeks.
In the equivalent week of 2024, HR prices averaged $690/st.
All prices are ex-works domestic mill unless otherwise noted.
