SMU Scrap Survey: Sentiment Indices rise in December

Written by Ethan Bernard & Stephen Miller

SMU’s Current and Future Sentiment Indices for scrap increased this month, according to the latest data from our ferrous scrap survey.

The increased bullish sentiment matched the December settle as ferrous scrap prices came in higher this month. (Stay tuned for SMU’s official scrap prices later on Tuesday.)

Current Sentiment Index

SMU’s Current Sentiment Index for scrap inched up one point to +66 in December vs. November. Since starting the scrap survey in February 2025, the Index has fallen as low as +63 in June and as high as +77 in April.

Future Sentiment Index

SMU’s Future Sentiment Index for scrap rose six points to +84 compared to November. As we finish the year, we logged a low of +75 in May and a high of +86 in March.

What’s going on

After reviewing results of the scrap survey, what the majority of respondents are telling us is they expect better demand and higher price for scrap in December and into January. We all know scrap flows tapered off in December and do not recover until spring. This usually pushes up prices.

Another aspect of the increased sentiment is the steel industry’s professed optimism the flat-roll sector will improve in 2026. If it does, steelmakers will need more scrap materials, and this would point to higher prices as well.

Respondent comments:

“We have to see some real improvement in demand.”

“December is a very short month and I depend on tonnage.”

“Demand exceeds availability.”

About SMU’s Scrap Sentiment

SMU’s Current and Future Scrap Sentiment Indices mirror the Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices in our flat-rolled steel survey. They are diffusion indices: readings above 50 indicate a more bullish outlook, while readings below 50 indicate a more bearish one.

Sentiment is only one of the indicators we measure. Our scrap survey, like our steel survey, is available only to premium members. If you would like to upgrade from executive to premium, please contact SMU account executive Luis Corona at luis.corona@crugroup.com. If you’re interested in participating in our scrap survey, please reach out to david@steelmarketupdate.com.

Ethan Bernard

Ethan Bernard is managing editor for Steel Market Update. He previously worked for American Metal Market as a copy editor in the New York office for two years, starting in 2008. Later, he copy edited AMM’s monthly magazine on a freelance basis from 2015 until 2017. With experience in financial copywriting and textbook publishing, he holds a BA in Comparative Literature from UC Berkeley, and an MFA. in Creative Writing from New York University. He can be reached at ethan@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-759-7871.

Stephen Miller

Stephen Miller started his career in the scrap metal industry in 1978 at Luria Brothers in Cleveland. Over the last 40-plus years, he has worked in all capacities in the trading business. He has had positions in both domestic and international scrap trading. In addition to scrap, Miller was at the forefront of the pig iron trade and established a pig iron distribution company under the name of Ferrosource, Inc. Most recently, Miller has concentrated on the scrap export market and regularly does consulting for several companies in the industry.