SMU Survey: Lead times stabilize following November extensions

Steel mill lead times held relatively steady this week on both sheet and plate products, according to responses from SMU’s latest market survey.

This stability follows a lofty November, where we saw lead times rise across the board by as much as six days on some sheet products.

While up, production times remain within healthy levels, currently about a week longer than the multi-year lows we saw over the summer.

The average lead time for hot-rolled coil and plate is around five and a half weeks. Cold rolled and coated products are all in the low-seven-week range.

Table 1 summarizes current lead times and recent changes by product (click to expand)

Compared to our previous market check, only one of our lead-time ranges shifted this week. The longest hot rolled lead time considered increased from eight weeks to nine.

Buyers predict stability

Most buyers (59%) expect lead times to remain stable over the next two months, up from 46% in our late November survey. Almost a third (29%) foresee further extensions, down from 45% two weeks prior. Just 12% anticipate lead times to contract from here, similar to recent surveys.

Here are some of the comments we collected:

“We believe lead times will start to settle in this period after the initial run-up.”

“Flat unless domestic economic activity increases.”

“Extending on rumors of improved demand.”

“Seasonal uptick.”

“They will contract. Simple supply>demand equation here. We expect lead times to really get short again in 1H of ’26.”

Trends

To highlight broader trends, lead times can be calculated on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis (Figure 2). All four sheet 3MMAs increased this week compared to late November, while plate held steady.

Overall, sheet 3MMA lead times remain within a few days of the two-year lows set back in September. The plate 3MMA has flattened since October, but remains about a week longer than it was this time last year.

Average lead times by product across the past three months were: hot rolled at 5.0 weeks, cold rolled at 6.5 weeks, galvanized at 6.6 weeks, Galvalume at 6.7 weeks, and plate at 5.2 weeks.

Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers participating in this week’s SMU market trends analysis survey. SMU measures lead times as the time it takes from when an order is placed with the mill to when it is processed and ready for shipping, not including delivery time to the buyer. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Consult your mill rep for actual lead times. Premium members can view an interactive history of our steel mill lead times data on our website. If you’d like to participate in our surveys, contact smu@crugroup.com.

Brett Linton

Brett Linton is a digital operations analyst for Steel Market Update, where he began his career. Linton has been in the steel industry since 2010. He has held roles as a category manager and strategic insights director at Reibus before returning to SMU in 2024. He is a graduate of The University of North Georgia with a degree in Finance and Accounting. Brett can be reached at brett@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-314-0179.