Steel export volumes weaken in September

Following August’s modest 4% uptick, the volume of steel shipped outside of the country slipped 8% in September to 594,000 short tons (st), according to recently released data from the US Department of Commerce.

September marked the third-lowest export rate in over five years, only higher than April 2025 (578,000 st) and December 2022 (592,000 st). Monthly trade was 9% below the average export rate over the prior 12 months (656,000 st per month) and 22% below the same month last year.

The vast majority of US exports (usually 90%+) are sent to US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trading partners. In September, Mexico received 53% of total US exports, and Canada received 40%. Other notable destinations (each accounting for 1% or less of September exports) included China, India, the Bahamas, South Korea, Italy, Australia, Germany, and Brazil. To explore more detailed export data on specific products or countries, visit the International Trade Administration’s Steel Mill Export Monitor.

Monthly averages show downward trends

Viewing exports on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis can dampen monthly fluctuations (Figure 2, left). On this basis, exports have trended lower over the past two years following the July 2023 five-year high of 887,000 st. The 3MMA eased 1% month over month (m/m) to 621,000 st in September. Compare this to the near-five-year low 3MMA of 611,000 st seen in June.

Exports can be annualized on a 12-month moving average (12MMA) to eliminate seasonal variations typically seen around the end of the year (Figure 2, right). From this angle, exports have weakened since peaking in early 2024, but remain above 2019-2021 levels. The 12MMA declined for the eighth consecutive month in September to 656,000 st, the lowest rate seen since May 2021.

Exports by product

All but one of the six flat-rolled steel products we track saw declines in exports from August to September, remaining at or near historical lows. Almost all were below their respective 12MMA rates and significantly lower than year-ago levels. Notable September trends by product include:

Plate-cut-length exports declined less than 1% from August, holding near an eight-month high.
Coiled plate exports slipped 31% m/m to the lowest rate in almost three years.
Hot rolled exports declined 5% to one of the lowest volumes recorded since 2022.
Cold rolled exports fell 23% to a seven-month low, also close to a multi-year low.
Galvanized exports increased 3%. While this product has seen stable trade over the past six months, it remains low historically.
Other-metallic coated (mostly Galvalume) declined 9% to the weakest monthly rate in over five years.

SMU members can view historical steel trade data on the Steel Exports page of our website.

Brett Linton

Brett Linton is a digital operations analyst for Steel Market Update, where he began his career. Linton has been in the steel industry since 2010. He has held roles as a category manager and strategic insights director at Reibus before returning to SMU in 2024. He is a graduate of The University of North Georgia with a degree in Finance and Accounting. Brett can be reached at brett@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-314-0179.