SMA Op-Ed: Forging ahead - 2025 review of the domestic steel market and what’s in store

When President Trump imposed a tariff on imported steel for national security reasons in 2018, it helped ensure American workers would continue making the steel the United States needs for our national security, critical infrastructure, energy independence, and economic growth. Members of the Steel Manufacturers Association (SMA) began a period of capital investment that continues today, committing more than $25 billion to new and expanded mills and process improvements. This year, President Trump strengthened the steel tariff by closing loopholes and raising the rate to 50% to make it tougher to circumvent our trade laws.

As a result, steel imports have fallen and steel production has risen. As Steel Market Update reported Dec. 12, citing data from the US Commerce Department, “steel imports tumbled to a near five-year low in September.” According to the Federal Reserve, September saw monthly manufacturing of raw steel (seasonally adjusted and indexed) hit its highest mark since November 2021 and the second highest mark of the last 10 years.

The president’s policies also support foreign direct investment in American-made steel. Nippon Steel plans to invest billions in advanced steel manufacturing at U.S. Steel, and Hyundai Steel and Posco have announced the construction of a $6-billion steel mill in Louisiana, to name just two examples.

At the same time, the steel tariff is having little or no impact on consumer prices. While some mistakenly blame the steel tariff for consumer price inflation, the facts tell a different story. The president’s steel tariff is a strategic necessity to rebuild manufacturing at home. A strong domestic steel industry underpins virtually all economic growth; without steel, there is no meaningful manufacturing expansion and fewer high paying jobs.

Deregulation clears a path for growth

In other positive news in 2025, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) this year began to unwind recent unwise regulations that harm manufacturing. Last year, for instance, the Biden administration proposed a particulate matter (PM2.5) regulation that would replace a standard that was already among the most stringent globally with a rule that closely approaches naturally occurring background levels. Now, EPA has embraced a smarter course that will protect air quality without needlessly stifling economic growth.

Sufficient scrap will be available to fuel EAF expansion

A 2025 study from Laplace Conseil found that the U.S. scrap reservoir already tops 4 billion tons and keeps growing. 

The study, written by noted steel expert Marcel Genet, makes clear that enough domestic ferrous scrap is available for electric-arc furnace steelmakers to supply nearly all the steel the United States needs, and that EAFs already produce the same high-quality steel as blast furnaces and basic oxygen furnaces, 

EAF steel mills account for over 70% of US production and are expected to have continued growth over the next decade.

How we can make 2026 better

The domestic steel industry is the envy of the world owing to its safety record, its culture of innovation, and its efficiency. It is also poised for growth in 2026, with several SMA members telling investors they foresee strong demand.

There is additional cause for optimism. Already there are signs that Washington could take steps to improve the permitting process for construction projects. We have urged Congress to pass the PERMIT Act and the SPEED Act, among other bills, to advance critical manufacturing and create good jobs across America. We have also testified in support of a revamped, stronger USMCA while encouraging our trading partners in Canada and Mexico to emulate our strong trade approach to China and other countries that are engaging in market distorting practices.

Policymakers could help stimulate new demand for steel while meeting other critical needs. For instance, we have thrown our support behind legislation that could pave the way for greater investment in shipbuilding in America to increase national self-reliance and security. And we will continue to advocate for sensible deregulation that keeps Americans working.

The current administration’s trade policies, regulatory approach and tax strategies are poised to strengthen the steel industry in 2026, bolstering national security. Promoting fair trade practices, reducing unnecessary regulatory burdens, and implementing tax incentives that encourage investment and modernization create a competitive environment for domestic producers. This balanced framework supports growth, innovation, and job creation, positioning the steel sector to thrive amid global challenges and reinforcing its role as a cornerstone of the US economy.

Editor’s note

SMU welcomes opinions from across the steel industry. We’re happy to share the thoughts above from Philip Bell, president of the Steel Manufacturers Association. If you have an opinion you’d like to express to the broader steel community, please contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.