Analysis
December 23, 2025
Final Thoughts
Written by Ethan Bernard
This is the final Final Thoughts of 2025. In fact, let’s throw in the final Final Thoughts of the first half of the 2020s. End of year. Mid-decade. What does it all mean?
On the surface, it means we’ll be chatting with you again in a couple of weeks, with new resolve and resolutions in hand, all while busily preparing for the Tampa Steel Conference in February. (You can still register here, btw.)
The year and the near-term future have been examined from many angles. However, what about something harder to quantify: the general mood of the industry? Now, and this is not analyst jargon, it seems like we might be on the final few ticks of the roller coaster as it climbs, about to take the plunge. No, I’m not talking about prices. (We all know HRC has been on the rise of late.) Just a general feeling that, through a confluence of factors, things that have been talked about are all starting to become a reality. And we’re moving towards the Future, whereas 2025 was more of a tariff wait-and-see.
What am I talking about? AI, data centers, reshoring, global regulations such as CBAM (set to take effect on Jan. 1). It seems we have been in the talk-heavy, ‘this is going to be impactful’ part of the story, but now, the impact is starting to take hold.
Take AI, for example. We’ve written about it a lot more this year. And we’ve seen it go from novelty to tool. For example, here is SMU parent company CRU’s proprietary AI’s take on what to watch out for in the US domestic steel industry in 2026.
ORAC’s 2026 trends
Policy‑driven reshoring (the combined effect of tariffs, trade enforcement, and carbon‑border/regulatory signals) will be the dominant trend shaping US steel in 2026 because it changes where steel is made, which grades are economic to produce, and whether low‑carbon domestic steel becomes a structural premium — with data centers/AI, CBAM, scrap prices, and tariffs acting as reinforcing factors.
We’ve seen a sign of this recently in South Korea’s Hyundai and POSCO teaming up to build an EAF mill in Louisiana to primarily serve the US automotive industry. The US trade situation was specifically cited as a driver. Let’s see if next year, the trend gains steam.
As for the practical implications, here is what ORAC had to say. (This is not advice, just food for thought.)
ORAC’s takeaways for domestic steel industry
Prioritize feedstock flexibility (scrap/DRI), lock in long‑term power and offtake arrangements, accelerate decarbonization, and product differentiation for low‑carbon grades, and closely monitor trade/policy signals to time capex and hedges so you can capture reshoring demand and any emerging green premiums.
Summing up
With 2025 drawing to a close, we have to really take a step back and thank all of you. This has been such an amazing year for steel. It’s been exciting reporting on it, and getting feedback from all our subscribers and survey respondents. Next year promises to be even more exciting. And expect new developments from SMU as well in the offing. Will they be as exciting as a Friday afternoon Trump executive order? Perhaps, but a lot less stressful. (That being said, with USMCA under review in 2026, maybe we will see some quieting down and return to normal in trade. Maybe…)
In that vein, we’ll be happy to hit the ground running in 2026. Wherever the roller coaster twists and turns, we’ll be reporting on it. So, again, very hearty, happy, and safe holiday celebrations to you and yours from all of us at SMU. Look for your next SMU newsletter on Tuesday, Jan. 6, 2026. And we look forward to seeing you all in Tampa in the new year!
