Final Thoughts

Here we are at the first SMU issue of 2026. We all know that 2025 was a crazy year (tariff bingo, anyone?). Luckily, the first week of 2026 has shown this year promises a return to humdrum business as usual, with all quiet on the geopolitical front. Well, maybe not…

In any case, we all know: When your only tool is a hammer, everything looks like… the Tampa Steel Conference. Wait, did I just say Tampa Steel Conference? We’re getting close to just one month away. And there’s still time to sign up here.

With that in mind, I plugged in all of our Tampa Steel Conference 2025 coverage into SMU parent company CRU’s proprietary AI. What emerged is a snapshot of what people were thinking back in February of last year, when “Liberation Day” was still a distant dream, but tariffs were still on everybody’s mind.

So, synthesized together, here are AI’s responses to my questions, lightly edited. How did the panelists do back in 2025? And how does the forecast for 2026 look?

Common themes of the 2025 conference

2025 starts cautiously after a weak 2024, with early weakness and expected improvement by Q2–H2.
Trade policy and tariff threats dominate uncertainty and could trigger sudden market turbulence.
Protectionism and tariff risk encourage on‑shore investment and proposals for US mills, shifting production locations.
New capacity additions, many galv lines, and a large uptick in scrap demand risk prolonged margin pressure in some segments.
Labor constraints and immigration restrictions hinder reshoring, so firms rely on local sourcing and automation to build resilience.

Overarching sentiment on President Trump’s steel tariffs

The overarching sentiment is cautious: Tariffs may spur reshoring but mainly bring uncertainty, costs, and short‑term turbulence.

Will 2025 be boom or bust for HRC?

2025 will probably be subdued for HRC, with a slow start, margin pressure, and a possible late recovery.

Embedded message of the conference distilled

Policy and protectionism are reshaping sourcing economics and increasing market uncertainty.
New sheet, galv, and rebar capacity plus high inventories create near‑term oversupply and margin pressure.
About 10 million additional tons of scrap/substitute demand create acute feedstock stress and volatility.
Firms with feedstock and process flexibility, plus secured power, gain a material competitive advantage.
Automation, local sourcing, and locked‑in project offtake are routes to durable outperformance.

Key takeaway: Tariffs and reshoring offer strategic gains. But only flexible, capitalized, automated firms securing scrap, power, and offtake will win.

2026 forecast – key themes

Policy and trade will remain the primary market drivers, creating episodic turbulence and sourcing shifts.
Demand will be lumpy and localized, driven by data centers, chip fabs, EV/battery plants, and energy builds.
Expect elevated volatility and tactical risk management, with price spikes tied to trade announcements and political windows.

Let’s get ready to rumble

So that’s what we get using 2025 data. But 2026 is here. And judging solely from the North Star BlueScope/Steel Dynamics Inc. story in this issue, this year is shaping up to be a doozy.

Is 2026 the year when HRC demand snaps back, scrap prices soar, and the Dodgers repeat as World Series champions? Heck, not even AI knows that, but we’re all excited to find out. See you in Tampa! (And if you missed it the first time, here is the link to register.)

Ethan Bernard

Ethan Bernard is managing editor for Steel Market Update. He previously worked for American Metal Market as a copy editor in the New York office for two years, starting in 2008. Later, he copy edited AMM’s monthly magazine on a freelance basis from 2015 until 2017. With experience in financial copywriting and textbook publishing, he holds a BA in Comparative Literature from UC Berkeley, and an MFA in Creative Writing from New York University. He can be reached at ethan@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-759-7871.