Analysis
January 8, 2026
Market participants eager to see HR orders roll in
Written by Kristen DiLandro
Sources in the domestic hot-rolled sheet market say they are standing by for an uptick in customer demand. These service center market participants, located in various regions of the US, expect to handle an influx of customer orders this month.
Market sentiment this week
One Midwest-based service center associate contends that prices are firm.
“The hot-rolled market and prices are strong. We expect to see higher demand when more projects go online in the next few months,” he said.
A different Ohio Valley-based service center operator describes a “lumpy” demand situation whereby, “whenever we’re ready to explode, things then die down and even out.”
He added, “It’s too risky to place orders for restocking right now. Speculating what is to come is a bad idea. We only order for what is on our books.”
Out on the West Coast, another service center source in the steel flats market sees demand for HR products ticking up in real time but confesses to fears about the overall demand cycle in 2026.
“I’m still concerned about demand in construction, manufacturing, and particularly automotive, since Toyota and General Motors both came out and said 2026 is going to be a tough market for automotive. That means all the HRC that goes to automotive should be looking for other markets to sell in. Which also means it’s going to be tough for mills to hold prices at higher levels,” he said.
Asked about restocking at his facility, the West Coaster said, “We have our inventory right where it should be.”
Pricing
The Ohio Valley-based market participant says he sees HR prices “firmly in the $900s [per short ton]. My CR prices are around $1,120/st.”
On the West Coast, the same source states that market prices are not aligned with Nucor CSI’s $1,000/st. He said that while HR prices are likely to creep up into that range if demand picks up, market prices are not quite that high yet.
SMU’s latest HR price assessment found $930/st was the average transaction price for the week. This price reflects an increase of $20/st since the last price assessment.
In the equivalent week of 2025, the average spot market price for HR equaled $690/st. You can compare prices using SMU’s Interactive Pricing Tool.
All prices are ex-works domestic mill unless otherwise noted.
