Market Data
January 8, 2026
SMU Survey: Lead times extend across the board
Written by Brett Linton
Following the brief pause seen in mid-December, steel mill lead times for both sheet and plate products have resumed their upward trend this week, according to responses from SMU’s latest market survey.
Lead times today are over a week longer than levels seen three months ago and nearly two weeks longer than the multi-year lows witnessed in mid-2025.
The average production time for hot-rolled coil is just over six weeks. Cold rolled and coated products are all in the mid-seven to eight-week range. Plate lead times are nearing six and a half weeks.
Table 1 summarizes current lead times and recent changes by product (click to expand)
Compared to our previous market check, the bottom end of many of our lead-time ranges shifted this week.
- The shortest cold rolled, galvanized, and Galvalume lead times considered increased from five weeks to six.
- The shortest plate lead time considered increased from four weeks to five.
Buyers expect stability
Most buyers (57%) expect lead times to remain stable over the next two months, similar to our mid-December survey. Almost a third (30%) foresee further extensions, while 13% anticipate lead times to contract from here.
Here are some of the comments we collected:
“Lead times will extend but will flatten out by the end of the first quarter.”
“Extending as supply meets demand.”
“Flat. I’m not seeing any increase in demand, so I’m not sure why lead times would increase.”
“I know what the mills are saying, but in two months that story will have changed (unless demand spikes in automotive or something) and lead times will contract.”
“Would seem [ead times will contract once the mills get caught up. Buyer inventories will grow, and buying should slow a bit.”
“Contracting. Mills have booked up Jan and Feb, but end of Q1 on we will see spot opening up.”
Trends
To highlight broader trends, lead times can be calculated on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis (Figure 2). All sheet and plate 3MMAs increased this week compared to mid-December.
Overall, sheet 3MMA lead times remain within a few days of the two-year lows set back in September. The plate 3MMA is about a week longer than year-ago levels.
Average lead times by product across the past three months were: hot rolled at 5.2 weeks, cold rolled at 6.7 weeks, galvanized at 6.7 weeks, Galvalume at 6.9 weeks, and plate at 5.3 weeks.
Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers participating in this week’s SMU market trends analysis survey. SMU measures lead times as the time it takes from when an order is placed with the mill to when it is processed and ready for shipping, not including delivery time to the buyer. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Consult your mill rep for actual lead times. Premium members can view an interactive history of our steel mill lead times data on our website. If you’d like to participate in our surveys, contact smu@crugroup.com.
