Analysis
January 8, 2026
SMU Survey: Mills hold firm on price to start 2026
Written by Ethan Bernard
Mill spot price negotiation rates have tumbled across all products SMU tracks, according to our latest survey data.
SMU polls hundreds of service center and manufacturer buyers every other week, asking if domestic mills are negotiable on new spot order prices. This week, only 28% of respondents said mills were willing to talk price on orders, down 20 percentage points from our last market check on Dec. 10. This is the lowest rate since early April of last year, when it stood at 20% (Figure 1).
Negotiation rates all decline
All five of the products SMU monitors saw lower negotiation rates this week (Figure 2). Current rates are:
- Hot rolled: 39% of buyers said mills are negotiable on price, down 4 points from the previous market check.
- Cold rolled: 13%, down 25 points from 38%.
- Galvanized: 35%, off 18 points from 53%.
- Galvalume: 18%, down 25 points from 43%.
- Plate: 29%, a 51-point tumble from 80%.
Buyer remarks:
“Not much (on HRC). Would need 3,000-plus tons.”
“Not much availability (on HRC), lots of NQs.”
“Maybe a tad of room to negotiate (on HRC), not much based on limited spot availability.”
“No spot for Feb. open (on galv).”
“Unless mega tons are floated by them (on plate).”
Note: SMU surveys active steel buyers every other week to gauge their steel suppliers’ willingness to negotiate new order prices. The results reflect current steel demand and changing spot pricing trends. Premium members can view an interactive history of our steel mill negotiations data on our website.
