Downstream Products
January 9, 2026
AHRI: Equipment shipments tumbled to nine-year low in November
Written by Brett Linton
Shipments of heating and cooling equipment fell for the sixth straight month in November, reaching the lowest rate seen since October 2016, according to the latest data released by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). November is typically one of the weaker shipping months of the year, but this November came in much softer than usual.
November shipments totaled 1.33 million units, down 5% from October and 21% less than the same month last year (Figure 1, left). Shipments of water heaters, warm-air furnaces, and air conditioners/heat pumps all declined month over month (m/m).
Trends
Shipments can be annualized using a 12-month moving average (12MMA) to smooth out seasonal movements. On this basis, shipments peaked in early 2022 after the post-Covid surge, then fell through late 2023. A recovery began in early 2024 and continued through May 2025, when the 12MMA reached a two-and-a-half-year high of 1.89 million units. That streak ended in June and the 12MMA has fallen each month since. Through November it stood at 1.71 million units, the lowest rate seen in over five years (Figure 1, right).
Shipments down for all products
- Water heater shipments eased for the second month in a row in November, slipping 4% m/m to 704,000 units. This was the second-lowest rate seen over the past year and is down 1% year over year (y/y).
- Shipments of warm-air furnaces declined 2% m/m to a 19-month low of 242,000 units, down 8% from the same month last year.
- Air conditioners and heat pump shipments fell 8% m/m to a 10-year low of 379,000 units. November shipments are down 46% y/y, marking the seventh consecutive month of negative annual growth. Note that these shipments are highly seasonal, as shown in Figure 2.
Annual comparisons
Figure 3 shows the annual growth rate of shipments by product on a 12MMA basis. From this angle, annualized warm-air furnace shipments remain strong, while air conditioners/heat pumps and water heater shipments are down:
- Warm-air furnace shipments experienced the largest annualized gain, with the November 12MMA up 5% compared to the same period one year prior. While this marked the 13th straight month of annual growth, this rate has been shrinking over the last six months.
- Air conditioner and heat pump shipments were down 18% y/y on a 12MMA basis. This was the third consecutive month to see negative annual growth and also the largest annual contraction rate in our 16-year data history.
- Water heater shipments contracted for the 10th consecutive month, down 1% y/y. This rate has trended steadily lower since the mid‑2024 peak.
