Steel market chatter this week

Before diving in, we asked our internal AI tool to analyze the responses we collected and highlight the key themes that emerge. 

Here’s what it found: 

• Most buyers are concerned about upward pressure from constrained supply (tariffs, low stocks, import weakness), but weak or uncertain demand is the main downside risk that could lead to leveling or declining prices. 

• Imports are not currently a meaningful relief on domestic supply/pricing — constrained by policy, landed cost, and weak competitiveness. 

• Most comments point to tightened supply and increased uncertainty driven by mill outages shifting supplier footprints, and low inventories at distribution points. 

• Supply-side actions and policy are maintaining higher prices despite a weak demand backdrop, causing tension with buyers who will likely adapt over time. 

Do you want to share your thoughts? Contact david@steelmarketupdate.com to be included in our market questionnaires.   

How do you expect prices to trend over the next three months, and why? 

“Pricing will go up by the end of January or February and will remain stable until June and will be reduced due to demand vs. supply.” 

“It’s hard for me to believe that prices are going to rise further because demand is weak, but I expect prices to increase a little bit more due to restricted (tariffs and shutdowns/maintenance) supply.” 

“Up!” 

“Rise 10-15%” 

“Likely stable from where they are now, but the demand picture is sketchy at best, it’s awfully quiet right now.” 

“Prices will continue to increase some as demand returns later in the first quarter.” 

“Rise a bit more and then level out.” 

“Up. Pent-up demand, low inventories, not that much foreign.” 

“I feel prices will trend up for the next month and then begin to slide lower unless demand picks up (which I don’t currently see happening).” 

“Prices will continue to increase.” 

“Gradually upward.” 

“It will flatten out.” 

“Higher as long as demand continues to increase.” 

“Flat to lower.” 

“Unsure with HR almost inverting lead time on coated recently, don’t know how to digest this.” 

“Increase as inventories are shrinking.” 

“Trend up slightly.” 

“We have to be almost peaking, right? I keep hearing about more and more folks having an appetite for imports at these domestic numbers.” 

“Down – because of the tariff rulings.” 

“Pricing will spike amid weak import volumes and low service center inventories. Not sure how long the party will last.” 

“Flat. Demand to justify price increases is not there and the impact of S232 is already counted.” 

“Discrete plate: Up.” 

“Slow increases.” 

Is demand improving, declining, or stable, and why? 

“Stable.” 

“Stable to declining – the pie seems to be shrinking and we haven’t seen evidence of onshoring.” 

“Demand is weak and flat.” 

“Improving.” 

“Stable, scrap trending up is causing justification for price increases and enthusiasm.” 

“Declining for our products due to seasonality.” 

“I’ve seen a slight increase in demand.” 

“Not improving … stable but smaller jobs.” 

“Stable.” 

“Improving. Supply-side increases might have just started demand. Hopefully, it holds unlike Q2’25’.” 

“Stable.” 

“Stable, nothing outside of price has changed much since we bottomed out in Oct/Nov ’25.” 

“Stable.” 

“Stable, at low levels.” 

“Demand on the West Coast sure seems bleak (especially in comparison to other regions). Pretty rough out here.” 

“Declining.” 

“Demand is very strong as companies learn they are short on steel and supply has tightened.” 

“Stable.” 

“Plate: stable to improve.” 

“Improving.” 

“Slightly improving. delayed projects.” 

“Up front demand has improved due to buyers placing orders ahead of increases.” 

“Demand seems to continue to slowly slip down.” 

Is inventory moving faster or slower than this time last year – and why? 

“Slower.” 

“Slower, lackluster at best.” 

“Faster.” 

“Same. demand isn’t good.” 

“Moving about the same to start the year.” 

“About the same.” 

“Around the same to slightly up, with inquiries up significantly.” 

“Same.” 

“Same or less.”  

“Inventory is moving about the same, but we are stocking less of it for sure.” 

“Much faster.” 

“Plate moving at a steady, not robust, pace.” 

“Much faster.” 

“Unchanged.” 

“Stable from last year.” 

“A little slower due to diminishing demand and our increasing prices.” 

Are imports more attractive vs. domestic material? Why or why not? 

“Import pricing seems to be on par with current domestic offerings. However, imports have 3-5 month lead time, so it’s risky from the perspective that the market could move downward between now and the time material would be available.” 

“Imports are attractive on certain products like pre-painted and not on others due to no price advantage and longer lead times than domestics.” 

“No.” 

“Not an option for us due to most customers requiring domestic materials.” 

“Yes, priced more affordably.” 

“Not even close.” 

“Attractive now, but mills are likely to soften soon.” 

“No, imports are still above domestic, but the gap will be closing once HR gets to around $1,000 per ton.” 

“Only on light-gauge .015 or below.” 

“No- long lead times.” 

“Definitely. If you can deal with the lead times, the pricing is right there. With that in mind, we think the market reverses and heads lower in mid-to-late Q1.” 

“Attractive.” 

“Imports are becoming attractive from a price standpoint, but the extended lead-time keeps us from placing orders due to Q2 demand uncertainty.” 

“Getting closer, but the administration will think of something else to deter it further.” 

“Plate imports are currently not attractive enough to warrant a deal.” 

Do you have any recent import offers or transactions to report on either sheet or plate? 

Most survey respondents skipped this question, but of those that chose to answer, 40% said they’re not seeing any offers or transactions. Of those who responded and are seeing offers and transactions, here’s what some said: 

“Yes, sheet is at $40.00 loaded barge Houston for HRC.” 

“Yes, they were high.” 

“Yes, they’re landing at same cost as domestic pricing.” 

What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about? 

“Underlying hopefulness.” 

“The Fed.” 

“Service centers are likely to be negatively impacted by mid Q2 as CRU-indexed contracts decouple from true spot market pricing.” 

“HR lead times pushing out with SDI Butler losing a large portion of melt has put a lot of strain on the market and is making lead times abnormal.” 

“Obviously, everyone is talking about mill and SSC M&A activity. I wonder though when someone purchases the old Evraz facilities from Orion.” 

“Service center inventories are low … and being picked apart by resellers and large-scale OEMs.” 

“We need a better economy.” 

“Evraz sale of North American operations.” 

“Is there a shortage/less availability of floor plate due to Algoma no longer supplying the USA?”