Market Data
January 22, 2026
SMU Survey: Lead times stabilize following early January bump
Written by Brett Linton
Steel mill lead times held steady on most products this week following the surge seen in early January, according to responses from SMU’s latest market survey. Lead times for sheet products saw minor movements, while plate times eased by a few days. Overall, lead times remain one to two weeks longer than levels seen three months ago.
The average production time for hot-rolled coil and plate is around six weeks. Cold rolled and galvanized products are in the mid-seven-week range. Galvalume is just over eight weeks.
Table 1 summarizes current lead times and recent changes by product (click to expand)
Compared to our previous market check, three of our lead-time ranges shifted this week.
- The shortest hot rolled lead time considered increased from four weeks to five, and the longest lead time considered declined from nine weeks to eight.
- The shortest Galvalume lead time considered increased from six weeks to seven.
- The longest plate lead time considered increased from seven weeks to eight.
Buyers expect stability
The majority of buyers (60%) expect lead times to be flat two months from now, similar to recent surveys. Just under a third (29%) expect lead times to extend further, while 11% believe lead times will contract from here.
Here are some of the comments we collected:
“Lead times will continue to expand from here.”
“We see mills raising prices and some buyers are holding off. But they will have to order at some point, and lead times will shift out.”
“Extending due to increasing demand and shutdowns.”
“In two months, I think we will be right on the bubble and the market will adjust to the new normal.”
“With a few mill upgrades completed, I believe there will be more tons offered in the market soon.”
“Contraction is dependent on mill readiness to pull production to keep supply matched to demand.”
“We expect to see imports roll in as Q2 approaches, so domestic lead times will reverse.”
“Mild contraction as demand rises in auto and data centers.”
Trends
To highlight broader trends, lead times can be calculated on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis (Figure 2). All sheet and plate 3MMAs increased this week, a trend seen since November. Overall, sheet 3MMA lead times are about four to six days longer than the two-year lows seen last September. The plate 3MMA is about a week and a half longer than year-ago levels.
Average lead times by product across the past three months were: hot rolled at 5.4 weeks, cold rolled at 6.9 weeks, galvanized at 6.8 weeks, Galvalume at 7.1 weeks, and plate at 5.4 weeks.
Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers participating in this week’s SMU market trends analysis survey. SMU measures lead times as the time it takes from when an order is placed with the mill to when it is processed and ready for shipping, not including delivery time to the buyer. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Consult your mill rep for actual lead times. Premium members can view an interactive history of our steel mill lead times data on our website. If you’d like to participate in our surveys, contact smu@crugroup.com.
